Market Outlook for 4th quarter and +140% in 3 months *NO PAYWALL*

Best performing substack portfolio

In this update, I’ll cover the performance of both my Substack portfolios, share my market outlook for the rest of the year, and provide a few additional updates.

First, I want to thank everyone who believed in me and has supported me since the launch of my Best 25 Holdings Substack portfolio on June 23, 2025. The portfolio had a strong first month, gaining over 30%, followed by a pullback in the second month, and then a powerful rebound in the third month.

As of the October 10 market close, the Best 25 Holdings portfolio is up 68.68%, including a solid 8.7% gain on Friday, even as the broader market finished the day in the red.

My Options Only portfolio, available to founding tier subscribers and launched on July 8, 2025 with a starting capital of $100,000, is currently up 140.64%.

Both portfolios had an excellent Friday because I anticipated the recent market pullback well in advance. I positioned the portfolios accordingly by taking profits on strong long positions and adding downside protection on Thursday and the moment market opened on Friday.

The goal of these portfolios is to outperform SPX by more than 1000% and it is far exceeding that. I estimate that my two portfolio values to be over $400k and $600k respectively by January Opex. You may think that is crazy but you will see why it is not farther below in my market outlook. But before that I need to say few more things.

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My last public update on Substack was posted on July 28, 2025. At that time, I gained over 1,000 subscribers (both free and paid) almost immediately, but I wasn’t fully prepared. The platform was new to me, and scammers quickly copied my name, registering similar domains and social media handles on platforms I don’t even use.

To avoid confusion, I decided to create a unique and consistent brand name that was available everywhere. That is how Tradenometry became Trademetry, a name I was able to secure across all major platforms.

Because of these distractions, I chose to keep a low profile and limit publicity. I didn’t want to grow the Substack too much before confirming that the new name was fully protected. Now that everything is properly set up, I’m ready to increase visibility.

Feel free to spread the word, as I focus on organic growth and performance rather than doing reciprocal promotions or collaborations with other finance Substackers with subscriber portfolios.

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Market outlook for 4th quarter 2025

If you followed my public notes on substack or x posts, you will see that I was bullish all summer and warned people not to short the rally. Towards the end of the summer in september I kept telling people to be bullish until October. Here is a a public note I made on Sep 9th

Then on Oct 1, I posted this note, open the note to expand and read everything.

In that Oct 1 note, I said that market would top that week and that top would last into the following week and that is exactly what happened. And we nailed the top near perfectly. Instead of posting screen grabs, I have edited the privacy setting of last week’s chat thread for the Best 25 Holdings Portfolio. Click on it, scroll all the way to Monday read all the messages from Monday to Friday and see how we handled the pull back on Friday and finished the day strong.

Revealing this thread also reveals the remaining holdings in the portfolio. I do not recommend gambling with any options positions in there, since we have already closed and taken profit on many of them. If you read the thread, it also gives you a clear view of my market trajectory for the rest of the year including when this October weakness would bottom. However, I don’t recommend making any long dated bets based on what you read.

If you’ve followed my X account since last year, you already know that I went mostly into cash in December 2024 with my passive investment portfolios. I shifted my focus to swing trading and active investing because that’s the best way to capture alpha in market conditions like these, with a Trump presidency combined with a bubble environment. The birth of this Substack came after several of my X followers encouraged me to start one. It happened right after I called the February Opex top to the exact date earlier in 2025 and predicted that markets would retest the August 2024 lows in a correction similar to the one during COVID.

So far, this year has been one of the easiest to chart and forecast—knock on wood—and I expect that to continue. However, as I’ve said before, don’t make long-dated bets solely based on my views. In this type of market, I assess things in shorter intervals: one week at a time, one month at a time, one quarter at a time, and at most, I look no further than six months ahead.

This bubble is not the time to keep most of your money tied up in mega-cap stocks such as the Magnificent 7 or other expensive names, especially if you’re a retail trader or managing a portfolio under $10 million. While those stocks might still rise 30% to 60%, that’s not the kind of alpha smaller accounts should be chasing during a bubble melt-up. You also don’t need 200+ names in your portfolio either. What you need is a condensed, high-alpha portfolio that combines strong stocks with well-timed option leaps in the right names. This approach applies not just to smaller accounts but also to larger ones. It’s the kind of setup where smaller portfolios can grow by many folds.

Many tech IPOs and speculative names launched during the COVID era—underwritten by major firms like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley—peaked in 2021. Now, several of them are setting up to retest or even surpass those highs. Some already did during the summer rally, while others are still catching up.

For smaller accounts, the key will be identifying a few strong names when the market bottoms later this month. That’s where the real multi-bagger opportunities will be. Expect a return of meme mania this winter in many of these names.

This October weakness should bottom out later this month or in early November, followed by a wave of positive sentiment. Retail traders and bears will likely get trapped shorting the bottom using their new Robinhood shorting tools, just before an epic rally begins. Those positioned correctly could easily grow their portfolio by multifold.

Remember you are in a bubble. Don’t look for rational reasons. Don’t do deep research with lot of data and fundamentals. Those will come in handy once the bubble bursts and bottoms but its not happening in the next 6 months and most likely not anytime next year other than some healthy corrections. This is one best time to be alive if you are swing trader since the last Trump presidency and the years leading up to dot com bubble and the crash years. Make the best of it! If you don’t know how, then just subscribe and come read my weekly chat threads!