TradeMetry

Q3 Market Correction, Q4 Melt Up, Next Super Cycle Theme

If you’ve read my last four articles and the notes I’ve posted over the past two months, you already have a good idea of what is coming and what I am going to discuss in this article. I will, however, try to be more precise. None of my articles or notes are behind a paywall, so anyone can read them. Only the subscriber chat is paywalled, where I share m…

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a month ago · 21 likes · 4 comments · TradeMetry

So, has the market bottomed, and is it time to get bullish for the next cycle? Nope. The framework from the previous article still holds strong. If you haven’t read that piece, or the yen carry trade article quoted within it, please do so to get up to speed. I am not pivoting. In order to be bullish in this bubble, the leaders need to be tech and AI-related trades, but these sectors will experience extreme volatility during Japan’s policy changes.

Japan raised rates by 25 basis points in June to bring the rate to 1% as expected, which was supposed to be the last hike of the year. However, the Yen continued to weaken. This led to an unexpected joint currency intervention by US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Japan’s Ministry of Finance on July 31st. Washington is currently pressuring Japan to hike rates rather than selling US Treasuries. Before this intervention, the probability of Japan raising rates in September was about 24%. Now, the odds are around a 78% chance of an increase in September and 96% by the October meeting. That means there is going to be at least one more rate hike of 25 basis points. This is exactly what you need to know before you think about going bullish, or before choosing not to sell the AI trade during this rally to buy back cheaper later!

Another interesting tidbit is that the last time the USA and Japan did a similar joint currency intervention was June 17th, 1998 during the dot com bubble. 1998 was a world cup mid term elections with many similar unknown geopolitical issues. The June 17th intervention in 1998 kept the markets from correction for exactly one month before it gave away on July 20th. Like now 1998 was defined by intense, highly volatile geopolitical and macroeconomic crises that directly triggered the global market sell-off. While the specific flashpoints differ from today's environment, the psychological impact on the markets, a sudden, violent "flight to safety" and an overnight evaporation of liquidity was exactly the same.

I believe the people who think the bottom is in are in for a big surprise. The rally we are seeing now is the result of the derivative market lighting up as big funds and market makers position themselves for the next legs down. As I pointed out in my previous article, I highly recommend opening SPY and QQQ charts to study the daily candles two months before and two months after the previous two times Japan hiked by 25 basis points (January 24, 2025, and December 19, 2025). Both times, the market topped weeks leading up to the hike, and rotations began early before the correction.

This time (June 16, 2026 hike), the market topped two weeks before and rotations began. However, instead of just re-testing the all-time high or barely squeaking above it, SPY seems to be breaking out as if it is ready to go straight up. QQQ is still behind, but it is poised to test its all-time high this week and looks like it could also break above it.

I think this time the bull trap is going to be epic. This rally is a great opportunity for those who didn’t prepare and take profit during the June-July pullback. I am not sure how high this volume-compressed beta rally will go, but if it hasn't already topped I see it topping sometime between Aug 21 and Aug 31. Once this fake rally ends, SPY and QQQ are ultimately headed to test, and possibly even breach, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) before the real 2027 bull cycle begins. As of now my the projection for bottom still remains same as in the previous article, sometime in q4 and to be more specific sometime in October.

For smooth sailing 2027 bull cycle shopping, I want to see SPY and QQQ tag their peaks from before the March correction. These peaks sit just below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Once we hit that area, I will consider picking up some long holds for 2027; until then, we have to trade carefully. After this current rally, even a violent drop to those zones is not necessarily bad, because those prior peaks sit between 690–700 for SPY and 635–640 for QQQ which are not even year’s low. The upward move that ensues after that bottom will be the true bull continuation rally. This current rally will likely end abruptly, and the higher it goes, the more violent the eventual fall will be.

We can expect DRAM and SMH components to drag itself higher this week and into the topping process because these are the sectors that can help QQQ go to ATH. After the topping process, these same sectors will get hit the worst.

While macro indicators like a rising Treasury General Account (TGA) balance and a depleted Reverse Repo (RRP) facility signal that structural net liquidity is actively draining from the banking system, micro-liquidity dynamics are keeping the equity rally alive. Specifically, a stable Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) proves that overnight funding markets remain highly functional, while the compressed ICE BofA High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM) reflects deep liquidity in the private credit and corporate bond markets. This robust credit environment is acting as a temporary cushion, decoupling stock prices from the broader liquidity drain. The moment SOFR spikes or private credit spreads begin to widen back toward reality, even if temporarily, markets should experience sharp correction.

Trading-wise, last 2 weeks was tough. While I timed my entry into the August rally perfectly, I left too much money on the table by taking profits early in anticipation of an imminent top. At the time, I discounted the likelihood of Japan being forced into another rate hike later this year. I then compounded the mistake by using those profits and additional capital to fund downside bets that ultimately failed. That is the frustrating nature of swing trading. However, looking ahead, the core thesis remains intact: the portfolio should recover completely by quarter-end, paving the way toward new all-time highs.

If you are interested in joining my moves, you can join the subscriber chat where there is a thread for each of our portfolios. Portfolio positions and daily market views are shared in these threads.

In the report, I announced that the new Long-Term Investor Portfolio would be exclusive to the Founding Tier because it is being funded entirely from profits generated by the Founding Tier Options-Only Portfolio. That reasoning still stands, and I believe it’s important to recognize that this new portfolio only exists because of what the Founding Tier accomplished during its first year.

However, after giving it more thought, I’ve decided to make the newly launched Long-Term Investor Portfolio available to Regular Tier subscribers as well.

One of the biggest lessons from our first year is that not everyone wants to actively trade options. Many subscribers simply want a disciplined, concentrated, long-term portfolio they can build alongside. The purpose of Trademetry has always been to help people become better investors, and I believe this portfolio can benefit a much broader audience.

The Founding Tier will continue to receive the complete Trademetry experience, including exclusive access to the Options-Only Portfolio, the fun $25K to $100K Challenge Portfolios, and everything available in the Regular Tier. Nothing changes there. While Challenge Portfolio #1 will be available to all subscribers, every Challenge Portfolio thereafter will remain exclusive to the Founding Tier. In addition, at the end of each 12-month cycle, all profits generated from both the Options-Only Portfolio and the Challenge Portfolios will be transferred into the Long-Term Investor Portfolio to continue building positions in high-quality companies and further grow that portfolio over time.

If you recently upgraded to the Founding Tier solely because of the new Long-Term Investor Portfolio and this change means you’d rather remain on the Regular Tier, just send me a message. I’ll gladly cancel your Founding Tier upgrade and issue a full refund, allowing you to continue as a Regular Tier subscriber.

I appreciate all of the feedback over the past few days. Sometimes the best decisions come after taking a step back and listening to the community, and I believe making this portfolio available to more subscribers is the right move for the long-term growth of Trademetry.

You can find the threads for each portfolio in the subscriber chat

If you’ve read my last four articles and the notes I’ve posted over the past two months, you already have a good idea of what is coming and what I am going to discuss in this article. I will, however, try to be more precise. None of my articles or notes are behind a paywall, so anyone can read them. Only the subscriber chat is paywalled, where I share my entries, exits, and day-to-day views and opinions.

We are going to quickly go through those articles to get up to speed on 2026. If you haven’t read them yet, I recommend doing so first, as they provide important context for what follows. If you already read all of them, scroll down to July Opex is over What now section and the anatomy of Q3 correction section.

Dec. 19 article looking ahead to 2026:

TradeMetry

2026, Yen Carry Trade, Market Correction, New Fed Chair, Midterms

On December 19, 2025, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its policy interest rate to 0.75%. While this move was widely expected, its significance lies in the potential to trigger another “unwind” of the Yen Carry Trade. To prevent a year-end market collapse, the US Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department have launched a massive, coordinated liquidity de…

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8 months ago · 10 likes · 2 comments · TradeMetry

Almost everything discussed in this article has played out like a crystal ball throughout 2026 so far, at very least go read the conclusion of that article. This article has remained relevant throughout all of 2026 and I believe it will continue to be relevant during the second half of the year.

Dec. 30 article looking further into 2026 and beyond:

TradeMetry

Shiller P/E, Case for buying 2026 correction & 8700 SPX

Over the past few days, many social media accounts have been pointing out that the Shiller P/E is currently at its second-highest level since the dot-com bubble, suggesting that the current bubble is about to burst. This prompted me to write this article to explain why I believe the bubble will continue for a few more years. We will likely see a sharp c…

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8 months ago · 13 likes · 1 comment · TradeMetry

This article will become especially relevant toward the end of Q3 or sometime in Q4, when fear reaches its peak and the echo chambers try to convince everyone that the bubble is bursting.

April 4 Iran war trade:

TradeMetry

2026: Spring Is here, So is the Trade and Iran War

The two pre-requisite to this article are 1. 2026 a year for Swing Traders: Yen Carry Trade, Market Correction, New Fed Chair, Midterms published Dec 19, 2025 and 2. Shiller P/E, Case for buying 2026 correction & 8700 SPX published Dec 30, 2025…

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5 months ago · 14 likes · 3 comments · TradeMetry

This article could leave readers with the impression that I lost money during the second quarter, but Q2 was actually my most profitable quarter since launching my Substack. To understand what happened, read this follow-up article from May 31:

TradeMetry

2026 2nd Half: Market Path and Portfolio Performance Update

This is a brief update on where we stand today and where we believe we are headed for the remainder of 2026. Before reading, we recommend reviewing our previous three articles listed below, as they remain the primary resources for understanding what may lie ahead for the rest of 2026…

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3 months ago · 9 likes · TradeMetry

It explains exactly how we achieved those historic results in Q2. In the market update section of that article, I also gave a very exact projection of when the semiconductor sector would top under the market update section. Below is an excerpt. We wrote that article while we were still holding some of our long semiconductor positions that had not yet been closed. These two articles are also an important lesson in why you should never get married to a market view and should always be willing to adapt when conditions change. They will also become relevant again after the Q3 correction bottoms because many of the non-oil and gas trades discussed in the April 4th articles should perform well during the next melt-up that I expect to begin in Q4. More on that when we get into the second-half outlook further below.

The Crystal Ball June 7 note:

This note was posted on June 7. Read it carefully, then study the SPX price action day by day through until July 17. Keep in mind that the monthly SPX options expire in the morning when the market opens on Opex day. However, the last day to trade those options is the day before, on July 16.

June 27 note:

After telling readers roughly a month in advance when the semiconductor sector would top, I signaled in this note that the week’s closing candle was the confirmation. At the same time, I called for a rally into the July 4 weekend to retest the all-time highs. I also repeatedly said on X that every rally in semiconductors should be viewed as a selling opportunity at that point. During the first two trading days after I posted that note, SMH rallied sharply, tagged the lower end of the June 22 all-time high candle, and failed.

I am not sharing all of this to take a victory lap. I am not one of those people who draw lines on both sides of a chart, present every possible outcome, and later take a victory lap showing the one that hit. I am sharing it because my views have been consistent and straightforward, and they have been publicly available without a paywall since the day they were published. Together, they show the timeline of my thinking, including the mistake I made at the end of March and how I corrected it. That period was especially challenging because of the constant “war on, war off” drama. As someone who closely watches option flow, I was able to see where the line in the sand had shifted and adapt accordingly. My 12 months anniversary on substack just completed. If you are curious how my trades did using these frame work, you can read my annual report here:

TradeMetry

1st Year Annual Report: Portfolio Update and 2 New Portfolios

Before I begin the annual report, a quick note: I originally intended to include the market outlook for the rest of the year, covering the Q3 correction and the scheduled Q4 melt-up in this report. However, due to time constraints, I will have to release it as a second article. I will get it out by Sunday evening. It will be a good one, so stay tuned…

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a month ago · 5 likes · 5 comments · TradeMetry

Okay now that we are caught up and July Opex is over, lets get on with this Q3 correction.

July Opex is Finally over, what now?

I received quite a few DMs from my free subscribers and X followers asking whether I had shorted the market or started buying puts. This was because I had been saying on X that I wouldn't turn bearish until July Opex and that I would likely start buying downside bets on July Opex or during the following week if the market moved higher. The answer is no. I have not yet shorted the market or bought a single downside position. The only thing I did in preparation was close out the last of my long positions. I would have bought puts on Friday if market went above Thursday’s levels but it opened gapped down and went red. My options-only portfolio is now essentially 100% cash. My mixed portfolio is also almost entirely in cash, with the exception of three micro-cap helium names that I am slowly accumulating and my dip buying in SpaceX, which I bought on the dip after warning people not to buy during the $220+ IPO frenzy.

SPCX is currently at an attractive entry price. It doesn't matter whether the stock goes up or down because it is the type of stock that can eventually be owned at a cost basis of zero if you sell option premium at the right times. It's the new Elon-related stock with strong meme appeal and high option premiums. Just make sure you buy shares in multiples of 100 so you can write covered calls against your entire position. I don't plan on selling my shares. Instead, I plan to strategically reduce my cost basis to zero by consistently selling option premium on them. I think it can go lower during q3 correction but in the next rally before August Opex, I will sell calls. Don't attempt this strategy unless you are well versed in options.

That is it in terms of Positions. Rest is all cash. The two new portfolios that is getting launched this week fully funded from the profits from options only portfolio is ready and is also sitting in cash. Will discuss that further below after we dissect the market.

Anatomy of the Q3 Correction

Before I get into my outlook, I want you to study the SMH, QQQ, and SPY charts starting two weeks before and extending three months after the following dates: July 31, 2024, January 20, 2025, December 19, 2025, and June 16, 2026. Obviously, you can’t study three months after June 16, 2026 because we are only about one month past that date, but I am going to explain what I believe is likely to happen. If you read my December 19 article, you already know why these dates matter. They mark the four Bank of Japan rate hikes of 15 basis points, 25 basis points, 25 basis points, and 25 basis points. What you are seeing on those charts during the periods that follow is, in my opinion, the price action driven by the unwind and repricing of the yen carry trade.

During each of those periods, the financial media and social media conditioned investors to believe that every move was caused by whatever headline happened to dominate the news cycle. One month it was DeepSeek, another month it was China’s chip restrictions, then Lil Kimi, tariffs, or the constant “war on, war off” headlines. Those stories can certainly influence short-term sentiment, but they are usually not the primary driver. Instead of focusing on the headline of the day, pay attention to what the Bank of Japan, Japan’s Ministry of Finance, the Federal Reserve, and the U.S. Treasury are doing. Out of those four, I believe the Fed and especially the U.S. Treasury deserve the most attention because liquidity ultimately drives where money flows.

When financial conditions tighten after a BOJ rate hike, the U.S. Treasury can offset part of that tightening by injecting liquidity into the financial system through movements in the Treasury General Account. As Treasury spends cash and the TGA declines, liquidity flows into banks and the private sector, helping stabilize markets. Eventually, money rotates into new leadership, and once that process is complete, markets can enter another melt-up phase.

After the June 16 BOJ rate hike, the Treasury responded with the largest liquidity injection of the four episodes, drawing down roughly $207 billion from the TGA. That was significantly larger than the responses following the previous BOJ hikes and, in my opinion, one of the reasons the market remained far more resilient than many expected. Last week, however, Treasury reversed part of that support by rebuilding the TGA and removing roughly $74 billion of liquidity. The market reacted negatively, but most investors were told the weakness was caused by Lil Kimi. Whether that headline contributed or not is beside the point. The liquidity backdrop had already become less supportive.

So far, USD/JPY has remained around the 162.5 area without a meaningful move lower. That makes the next BOJ and FOMC meetings especially important. The BOJ is widely expected to continue its gradual normalization path, so it is unlikely to surprise markets with aggressive action. At most, it can influence expectations through a more hawkish tone. The Ministry of Finance, however, has tools that can have a much more immediate impact. It can directly intervene in the foreign exchange market by selling part of Japan’s large U.S. dollar reserves to buy yen, strengthening the currency and increasing pressure on carry trades.

Leading into the next FOMC meeting, I will be monitoring the Treasury General Account every day to see whether Treasury continues rebuilding it or resumes injecting liquidity. I will also be paying close attention to comments and actions from Japan’s Ministry of Finance toward the end of the month. The two most important Treasury dates to put on your calendar are August 3, when Treasury releases its updated borrowing estimates for the current and next quarter, and August 5, when it announces the Quarterly Refunding, including how much it plans to borrow and how it intends to finance those needs. Those announcements should provide a much clearer picture of the liquidity outlook and, in my opinion, will go a long way toward determining when the Q3 correction bottoms and when the next melt-up begins.

Earlier I said that headlines are mostly noise, and I still believe that. However, not every headline should be ignored. Tariff announcements, military conflicts, and geopolitical events can absolutely move markets because they directly affect capital flows and investor behavior. They often amplify moves that are already underway because of liquidity and positioning. During periods of geopolitical escalation, demand for the U.S. dollar typically increases because it is viewed as a safe-haven asset. These events happening around these dates are by design anticipating upcoming moves. Japan’s Ministry of Finance will highly likely intervene in some capacity to support its currency. At the same time, Treasury’s weekly cash management decisions will continue to influence liquidity, and in my view, that remains one of the most important factors driving the market over the coming weeks. I don’t trade Forex but if I did I would take a stab at going long Yen when its above 162.5 anticipating a move to test 150.

I asked you guys to study the charts around the previous yen carry trade dates because it shows how this correction can unfold in different ways. It could be a controlled selloff over several weeks, which I believe has already started in tech and semis. QQQ has been struggling while SPY is on the upper side because of sector rotation, exactly as I mapped out in the june 7th note. Eventually, I expect all major indices to at least test their 200-day moving averages before October Opex. Whether that happens in waves or through a sharper move lower will depend heavily on how the U.S. Treasury manages liquidity. 200 day is at minimum and being conservative for this correction bottom. Break down below 200 day average and vix over 35 is also possible.

If you are bearish, the better strategy is to fade rallies instead of chasing the market lower when fear is already elevated. This was the reason I didn’t make any downside bets on Friday as originally planned. I would actually welcome another rally in semis on some random AI headline because I think it would create another great fade opportunity. The AI crowd will continue pushing bullish narratives while institutions rotate out of the old leaders and into the next cycle winners.

When this correction bottoms, the market will shift toward new narratives. I think many investors will rush back into semis to buy the dip, but I do not expect SMH to lead the next melt-up. My base case is that SMH does not make a meaningful new high until late 2027 or sometime in 2028 as many of the current AI winners consolidate. The next leadership could come from areas that were overlooked during the previous cycle.

I am not looking to build long-term positions until I see how Q3 correction develops. I would be very cautious until October 20 market close before deciding to go long shopping for long term portfolios. The biggest dates I am watching are August 3 and August 5 because Treasury’s borrowing estimates and Quarterly Refunding should give us a clearer picture of future liquidity. If we get peak fear around those dates while the market is testing major support, that could mark an important turning which could induce a rally but based on current order flow SPX needs to below 8000 until Dec Opex. For this reason if the market already broke below 200dm by aug 5 and rallies, that may not be the melt up. It will likely consolidate and re-test the bottom. Don’t look for any catalysts or narratives they will fall in place magically and if it doesn’t exist it will be manufactured. Instead pay attention to the treasury and the order flow.

Long term, I remain very bullish. I still expect SPX to reach around 8,700 by the end of October 2027, as discussed in my December 30 article. For the next super cycle, I am watching some SaaS, drones, robotics, silicon photonics, optical networking, and custom silicon. Some of the SaaS names from will become attractive after the correction and I recommend subscribing to him if you want to read his thesis. Yes he was early but it will play out. I shared my view of Michael burry in this note the other week.

I mentioned Burry because he already bought some of the names on my watch list but he is early. ADBE which he bought early is among my potential top buys at the bottom of the correction. In fact, we bought adobe at the low recently for 193.x along with call options in our swing trading portfolio in June and sold in the mid 220’s. When this correction bottoms, I will be adding Adobe.

My bold prediction is that MRVL becomes the MU of the next cycle. and breaks above 1000 with in 16 months from the correction bottom. When the long-term buying window opens, names like AVGO, ADBE, NOW, MSFT, MRVL, META, and AMZN will be on my watchlist, but the biggest returns usually come from finding the next picks-and-shovels companies before they become obvious. The trades discussed in the Iran War trade article from April should play out as well. We will discuss all this in the subscriber chat when the time comes. There is a chat thread for each portfolio. There is also something that is currently open to everyone and that is 25k to 100k challenge portfolio. This was originally part of the Founding Tier because it was funded 100% from the profits of the options-only portfolio. However, after repeated requests from other members, it is currently open to everyone for now. All my articles and notes are are free for everyone to read. If you like what you read, please restack and share wherever you can.

Before I begin the annual report, a quick note: I originally intended to include the market outlook for the rest of the year, covering the Q3 correction and the scheduled Q4 melt-up in this report. However, due to time constraints, I will have to release it as a second article. I will get it out by Sunday evening. It will be a good one, so stay tuned.

And now we begin the annual report…

First and foremost, a huge thank you to everyone who has supported me on Substack and continues to do so.

One year ago, after months of encouragement from some of my followers on X throughout late 2024 and early 2025, I finally gave in and launched Trademetry. Two weeks later, I launched two live portfolios, each with a starting bankroll of $100,000.

Although both portfolios reached their one-year anniversary on July 10th, I decided to complete the first annual cycle at July OPEX instead. Going forward, every July OPEX will mark the end of one annual cycle and the beginning of the next.

First-Year Results

After twelve months, the results are as follows as Of July 17th Market close:

Regular Tier Stocks & Options Portfolio: +50.01%

Founding Tier Options-Only Portfolio: +303.58%

Every transaction remains fully trackable and auditable. Entries and exits have been posted live in the subscriber portfolio chat threads, and the transaction log has been maintained in the chat since inception, making it easy for subscribers to audit the performance independently.

When I launched these portfolios, I set a goal that many people considered ridiculous. The objective was to produce a return that is at least 10x more than SPY. The goal was exceeded with the options-only portfolio; however, when the two portfolios were combined, we fell little short. However two portfolio combined out performed everyone on substack and every ETF, including the SMH. Our goals for these portfolio will continue into 2nd year.

The philosophy behind these portfolios will also remained unchanged: Make money when the market goes down, and make even more money when the market goes up.

Many critics misunderstood what these portfolios were designed to accomplish. They compared them to traditional investment portfolios without recognizing that these are active swing trading portfolios built around options and trading stocks on shorter time frames. They are designed primarily for retail traders with smaller accounts, not institutions managing hundreds of millions or billions of dollars.

That said, one of the biggest requests from the first year is that many subscribers wanted a stocks heavy portfolio they could follow with larger amounts of capital. Others wanted a simpler, longer-term approach without the complexity of active options trading. I also had plenty of subscribers asking which trades I would choose if I could only pick one or two positions at a time to make quick money.

Those conversations played a big role in shaping what comes next.

Entering Year Two

As we begin our second annual cycle, Trademetry is expanding beyond the two original swing trading portfolios.

During the first year, the Founding Tier Options-Only Portfolio generated enough profits that it now holds a little over $400,000 in cash. One point that often confuses new subscribers is that this portfolio does not compound position sizing. Every position continues to be sized using the original $100,000 bankroll, regardless of how much cash accumulates via gains. That approach keeps risk consistent and makes performance easier to compare over time.

Rather than letting those gains sit idle, we’re putting them to work by launching two new portfolios that serve different purposes.

Both new portfolios launching this week will be funded entirely from profits generated during the first annual cycle in the founding tier options only portfolio. No additional capital is being added, and no changes are being made to the way the existing portfolios are managed. Instead, we’re expanding the product lineup to better serve different types of investors while continuing to build on the foundation established during our first year. Both new products will be available behind the founding tier subscription since its fully funded from the founding tier options only portfolio gains.

The first new portfolio is designed for long-term investors and institutions that prefer a concentrated, actively managed buy-and-hold strategy. The second is a challenge portfolio built for subscribers who prefer a simpler, high-conviction approach using only a handful of positions at a time.

Let’s take a closer look at both.

Two New Portfolios for Year Two

Founding Tier Long-Term Investor Portfolio

The first new portfolio is designed for long-term investors. Unlike our existing swing trading portfolios, this strategy is intended for investors with larger amounts of capital, including institutions, who prefer building wealth through disciplined portfolio management rather than frequent trading.

Launching with $250,000 entirely funded by profits from our Founding Tier Options-Only Portfolio's first annual cycle, this portfolio utilizes specific allocation percentages to easily scale and manage billions in capital. It will follow a buy-and-hold philosophy, but don’t mistake that for buying everything in the name of diversification. I have never believed that owning hundreds of stocks simply to mirror an index is the best way to outperform the market. Instead, our portfolio will typically hold 20 to 25 carefully selected companies, and at times even fewer, with every position earning its place based on conviction rather than diversification quotas.

The investment strategy will maintain a balanced approach across three distinct asset profiles. The portfolio will actively accumulate Cyclical Bottoms by identifying resilient businesses before they launch into multi-year bull runs, while simultaneously capturing Short-Term Opportunities through tactical positions held for six months to two years. Complementing these plays, the strategy will secure Perennial Cash Cows by investing in dominant, highly profitable compounders that deliver reliable, long-term secular growth. There will be no options trading within this portfolio, although I will occasionally use conservative strategies such as cash-secured puts to establish positions at better prices or covered calls to generate additional income or exit positions. There will be no margin/leverage trading or naked option selling.

Although this portfolio will be far less active than our swing trading portfolios, it won’t simply sit on positions through every market cycle. Market corrections and periods of elevated risk will be managed through hedging and tactical adjustments when appropriate. The objective is to build a portfolio that can compound wealth over many years while still actively managing downside risk when conditions warrant it.

Performance Goal & Guarantee

The primary objective of this long term investor portfolio is to outperform SPY, QQQ, and the best-performing non-leveraged sector ETF each year. Since this is Substack, I’ll also add an additional goal with a guarantee: The guarantee that this portfolio’s return will come ahead of the largest finance substack, ’s “Citrindex” return by at least 10 percentage points (Citrindex +10%) over the next annual cycle. If it doesn’t, every subscriber will receive another year of access to this portfolio free of charge. As always, every transaction will be posted live in the dedicated portfolio thread, with a complete transaction log maintained from inception so performance remains fully transparent and independently auditable. Hopefully Citrini also makes his portfolio easy for subscribers to track so the comparison can be made fairly by his subscribers.

The $25K to $100K Challenge Portfolio

The second new product is something completely different. Over the past year I’ve received countless messages from subscribers who don’t want to replicate every position in the existing portfolios. Instead, they cherry-pick trades and regularly ask which one or two positions I would choose if I could only make a handful of investments. I’ve always avoided answering those questions because the portfolios are designed to work as complete strategies. Cherry-picking individual positions changes the risk profile and often leads to very different results.

This new portfolio solves that problem. It will start with $25,000, also funded from cash gains from founding tier options only portfolio and have one objective: grow the account to $100,000. Rather than spreading capital across many positions, it will swing trade one to three high-conviction stock positions, with as much as 90% of the portfolio allocated in those names. Around 10% may occasionally be allocated to options when they offer an attractive risk-reward opportunity. Because options remain part of the strategy, this portfolio is still best suited for smaller accounts, although investors with larger portfolios can simply follow the stock positions and ignore the options.

Every position in the Challenge Portfolio will come directly from one of the other three Trademetry portfolios. Nothing speculative will be added simply to make the challenge more exciting. The difference is not in the quality of the ideas but in the concentration of capital. This gives subscribers who prefer a simpler approach a dedicated portfolio they can follow without having to decide which trades to cherry-pick themselves.

Once the account reaches $100,000, the challenge will be considered complete and immediately restart with a fresh $25,000 account as Challenge #2. The same process will continue for Challenge #3 and beyond. I won’t promise how long each challenge will take, but my goal is to complete three successful challenges during every annual cycle. Some people will no doubt say those goals are unrealistic, just as they did when I launched Trademetry with SPY outperformance goal. That’s perfectly fine. I’ve always preferred setting ambitious goals because even if I fall short, the results can still be exceptional. Public criticism has never bothered me. If anything, it motivates me to work even harder to prove the skeptics wrong.

What the First Year Taught Me

The past twelve months have been a learning experience, not because the market surprised me, but because trading publicly is very different from trading for yourself. Before launching Trademetry, I only had to think about my own execution. Once others began following my trades, I had to consider how my entries, exits, and overall strategy would affect many people trying to execute the same ideas. That forced me to adapt much more quickly than I expected.

The issues was mainly in the options trading. As the subscriber base grew, some trades became increasingly crowded. A small number of subscribers would sweep option contracts far larger than intended, triggering alerts on options flow services and creating a snowball effect. Those trades often got very overcrowded, making execution less efficient and reducing the probability of success. It’s one of the realities of running a public portfolio that simply didn’t exist when I was trading on my own.

The good news is that I now have a full year’s worth of data to work with. That allows me to identify which types of trades perform best in a public portfolio and which are better avoided. During our second annual cycle, there will be fewer transactions, more selective entries, and a more refined approach to managing both entries and exits. The goal isn’t to trade less for the sake of trading less, but to focus only on opportunities that give everyone the best chance of achieving similar execution.

Rethinking Profit Taking

The biggest lesson from our first year had nothing to do with finding winning trades. It was about knowing when to take profits.

Roughly 70% of the options positions we entered were profitable at some point before expiration. Many eventually expired worthless because the majority of our options trades are inexpensive, out-of-the-money positions designed to capture explosive breakout or breakdown moves. During the first few months, when the subscriber base was much smaller, that approach worked exceptionally well. We were regularly producing options that gained more than 1,000%, sometimes every week. Capturing just one of those winners more than offset several smaller positions that expired worthless.

As Trademetry grew, however, those opportunities became less frequent. Crowded trades meant many positions would still double or triple before losing momentum, but fewer developed into the massive winners we had become accustomed to. Looking back, it became clear that continuing to manage every trade the same way no longer made sense.

Ironically, many subscribers outperformed me by doing something very simple. Rather than waiting for me to close a position, they scaled out gradually. Some routinely took profits once a position doubled. Others sold portions at 100%, 200%, and 300%, leaving a smaller position open to follow my exit. The one-year data suggests that this staged approach often produced better overall results than attempting to mirror my exits exactly.

That doesn’t necessarily mean my approach was wrong. In many cases I deliberately leave profitable positions open because they serve another purpose within the portfolio. I manage the portfolios as complete strategies rather than as collections of individual trades. A position that remains open may continue to provide protection if my market outlook changes, even if that means giving back some unrealized gains.

A good example came during the transition from the first to the second quarter. We accumulated several oil and gas positions ahead of the Iran conflict, and those trades quickly became highly profitable. We realized roughly half of the gains while keeping the remaining positions as a hedge in case the conflict escalated. At the same time, we aggressively rotated into semiconductors and technology as the market entered a powerful melt-up. In hindsight, the absolute maximum return would have come from closing every energy position and allocating everything to tech. However, given the uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical environment and the Trump administration’s unpredictable handling of the conflict, I was comfortable sacrificing some upside in exchange for maintaining portfolio protection.

Even with what I now consider a less efficient profit-taking strategy, our overall performance was strong enough to outperform every other Substack portfolio I’m aware of and beat SMH by a wide margin. More importantly, I now have twelve months of real-world data showing exactly where improvements can be made. Those refinements are already being incorporated into our second annual cycle, and I believe they’ll make the portfolios even stronger going forward.

Subscription Structure

For those wondering what each subscription includes, here’s how the portfolios will be organized going forward.

Founding Tier

The Founding Tier subscription includes access to everything:

• The Long-Term Investor Portfolio

• The Options-Only Swing Trading Portfolio

• The Challenge Portfolios

• Regular Tier

Regular Tier

The Regular Tier subscription includes access to:

• The Stocks & Options Swing Trading Portfolio

Final Thoughts

Looking back, I’m proud of what we accomplished during our first year, but I wouldn’t say I’m completely satisfied. At the start of the journey, I set two additional fun goals for myself: growing the Regular Tier portfolio from $100,000 to $300,000 and the Founding Tier Options-Only Portfolio to $1 million within the first annual cycle. We fell short of both targets.

That doesn’t change how I view the year. We built two fully transparent, fully auditable portfolios from the ground up, established a track record that subscribers can verify independently, and assembled an incredible community of subscribers along the way. More importantly, we now have a full year of real-world data showing what worked well, where we left money on the table and where we wasted money unnecessarily, and how we can improve going forward.

Year Two isn’t simply a continuation of what we’ve already built, it’s an expansion. We’re growing from two portfolios to four, broadening our strategies to serve different types of investors, and applying everything we learned during the first twelve months to improve execution and portfolio management. I believe those refinements will make Trademetry significantly stronger over the coming year.

As always, every transaction will be posted in the chat the moment it happens, every transaction will remain fully trackable, and every result will be available for anyone to audit. Thank you to everyone who has supported Trademetry during its first year. Whether you’ve been here since day one or joined somewhere along the way, I truly appreciate your support.

Now let’s get to work on Year Two.

Be sure to stay tuned for the market out look article this Sunday. Many of you are looking forward to the update on my correction call and I will have clear road map of it. As of Friday's I have not entered any positions for the corrections. However, in preparation, I exited all longs this week in preparation for the correction. More details will be in Sunday’s article. Its free for all as usual without any paywall.

Only the subscriber chat is behind paywall and you can access it by upgrading.

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This is a brief update on where we stand today and where we believe we are headed for the remainder of 2026. Before reading, we recommend reviewing our previous three articles listed below, as they remain the primary resources for understanding what may lie ahead for the rest of 2026.

1. 2026 a year for Swing Traders: Yen Carry Trade, Market Correction, New Fed Chair, Midterms published Dec 19, 2025.

2. Shiller P/E, Case for buying 2026 correction & 8700 SPX published Dec 30, 2025.

3. 2026: Spring Is here, So is the Trade and Iran War published Apr 4, 2026

Market Update

Before we do the portfolio update (currently new all time high for the combined portfolio and since our inception, we are the best performing substack portfolio) we will do a quick market update.

Articles 1 and 2 are still very much in play from a broader perspective. In Article 2, we zoomed into a more specific timeframe and that portion did not play out exactly as expected. The market corrected into the spring largely as outlined in Article 1, but it did not bottom the way we anticipated in Article 3 once we entered the spring period.

In our view, the Iran war created an overcrowded bearish trade. The largest finance substack Research pushing the war trade (oil & gas, fertilizers, shipping etc) to his large subscriber case when our options were up 300 to 400% didn’t help our case…read “Don’t become exit liquidity following big accounts” section from the article 3 listed above. But doesn’t matter because we had epic catch up trades on the long side in the month of May and the combined portfolio total is at all time high now with lot more to come in June as you will see farther below in this article in the portfolio update section. The Trump administration, along with the Treasury Department and Secretary Bessent, went the extra mile to stabilize markets during the Iran conflict. As a result, instead of a proper bottoming process, the market experienced a historic squeeze that catapulted indexes to new all-time highs, led primarily by AI and semiconductor stocks.

The selling we saw during Q1 and into the spring was controlled and never became truly violent. Because of that, we believe there is still another correction ahead, one that could be considerably more aggressive and potentially mark the completion of the yen carry trade unwind. We encourage readers to revisit Article 1, as it contains several important points related to this view.

If that correction occurs, we believe semiconductors and the QQQ are likely to bear the brunt of the selling. Whether it begins around June OPEX week, which also coincides with important BOJ and FOMC meetings, or sometime afterward remains to be seen.

Since 2024, the market has consistently pulled back within two weeks to two months following each Bank of Japan rate hike including earlier this year in Q1. As discussed in Article 1, both our FOMC and BOJ projections have largely unfolded as expected. However, for the upcoming meeting, the outlook has shifted. Current expectations favor the Federal Reserve holding rates steady, while the BOJ is still expected to raise rates by 0.25%.

We believe that sometime around this period, or within 2 weeks to 2 months of Japan raising rates, semiconductor stocks will experience a meaningful pullback. Eventually, the broader indexes should also see another leg lower. That said, semis and the broader market may still have room to run in the near term, providing opportunities for investors who missed part of the rally to catch up as we did in epic form in the month of May.

As we have emphasized in the past, these public posts reflect our market views at the time they are written. Those views can and do change. We run a swing trading portfolio, and our positions evolve as market conditions evolve. Our objective is simple: make money in both rising and falling markets. Our true performance and result of the work is measured only by the performance of our portfolio’s where all entries and exits are posted live in the subscriber chat that can be audited/back tracked using the transaction log.

Despite the possibility of a correction, our longer-term outlook remains unchanged. We still believe SPX 8700 by October 2027. At the time we published article 2, many were barking that 8700 is irresponsible call but now they are all singing the same tune. If that view proves correct, any significant correction along the way is likely to present a buying opportunity. Once again please be advised that we are not holding any long term positions to reflect our 8700 view as our portfolios are swing trading portfolios that aims to catch max upside in shorter time frames during market rallies and as well as corrections.

Portfolio Performance

The views outlined in Article 3 influenced many of our trades after the Iran war began. Nearly every oil and gas position we accumulated moved significantly higher, and several options positions generated multiple-fold returns.

At the time, we remained bearish in the overall market and did not anticipate the vertical move that followed. We were waiting for the S&P 500 to reach 6200 before beginning to accumulate long positions in the market and take profit in the war trade, as we expected an eventual bottom between 5800 and 6000 in SPX. Instead, the market reversed just above 6300 and never looked back.

Our view in early April was that the rally was a dead-cat bounce. We expected oil prices to continue climbing and the conflict to escalate. We also believed that efforts were being made to prevent oil futures from moving significantly higher.

Although we took some profits in our energy positions, we left much of the gains on the table because we expected further upside. In several cases, positions that had been up 300% to 400% saw only partial profit-taking before eventually giving back much of those gains.

By May, it became increasingly clear that the market wanted to move substantially higher. At that point, we began building long positions in individual stocks while continuing to hold previously bought oil and gas names as a hedge and in same cases even buying more.

As a result, our Founding Options Portfolio remained relatively flat during April, while our regular-tier Best 25 Stocks and Options Portfolio moved into the red. Throughout that period, one message we consistently repeated to subscribers was not to panic. We remained confident that we would achieve our objectives by the one-year anniversary of the service, which we will discuss later in this article.

The catch-up trades on the long side during May have been exceptional. As a result, both portfolios have experienced significant gains and the combined value of both portfolio is at new all time high.

Founding Tier Options Only Portfolio:

Regular Tier Best 25 Holdings Stocks & Options Portfolio:

The Founding Tier Options-Only Portfolio was launched on July 9, 2025, while the Regular Tier Portfolio was launched on June 23, 2025. Both portfolios started with $100,000, with the primary goal of outperforming SPY by 1,000%.

We also set two additional milestone targets for fun: growing the Founding Tier Portfolio to $1 million and the Regular Tier Portfolio to $300,000.

Even during the April drawdown and period of underperformance, we repeatedly told subscribers that achieving all of these targets remained highly likely. Many subscribers were skeptical at the time, but after witnessing the performance in May, most have become believers.

When the market opens on Monday, it is highly likely that both portfolios will be showing even larger gains than those reflected in the screenshots above, which were taken before Friday’s close.

Across the two portfolios, we generated substantial gains in a number of positions, including MSFT, ADBE, AVGO, and IBM, to name a few of the larger winners. As we publish this article on Sunday night, many of these names are already trading higher in the overnight session.

As positions appreciated and several exceeded 1,000% returns, we took profits in stages while continuing to hold portions of the positions to participate in any further upside. This approach allowed us to lock in gains while still maintaining exposure to some of our strongest-performing trades.

We believe there is still some more long side trades and we plan to hit them until they stop working. Then we shall continue to make money after market corrects. Our next update will be at the 1 yea anniversary and we are confident we will hit all goals. As usual all transactions will be shared live in the subscribers chat and you can unlock them buy subscribing.

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Since inception, we are probably the best-performing portfolio-focused Substacks available, with every entry and exit posted in real time and fully documented. Subscribers can independently verify our results through the transaction log, allowing every trade to be audited and tracked from start to finish.

Unfortunately, transparency is not always the norm in this industry. Many investment newsletters and Substacks hold dozens of positions at once and later highlight only the winners. Others publish bullish and bearish scenarios simultaneously and then emphasize whichever view ultimately proves correct. We have always tried to take a different approach by maintaining a transparent transaction record and allowing subscribers to judge our performance based on the complete history rather than selective examples.

Finally, nothing published on this platform should be considered financial advice. This is simply a place where we share our personal market views, portfolio activity, and trading decisions. You should conduct your own research and make your own investment decisions. We are not recommending that anyone buy or sell any security, and I cannot be held responsible for any losses or gains resulting from actions taken based on the content published here. Our market views change with market conditions.

The two pre-requisite to this article are 1. 2026 a year for Swing Traders: Yen Carry Trade, Market Correction, New Fed Chair, Midterms published Dec 19, 2025 and 2. Shiller P/E, Case for buying 2026 correction & 8700 SPX published Dec 30, 2025.

Four months ago, I published two pieces that laid out everything you needed to know about 2026 before the year even started. The first argued this would be a year defined by swing traders, not buy-and-hold investors. The second made the case for a correction, a bounce, and ultimately SPX at 8700 by late 2027. Both pieces are worth going back to read if you have not already, because everything that is happening right now was outlined there. After you read those, continue below for more roadmap.

Contents:

1. Where we stand today

2. The Carry Trade Has a New Engine, Iran War

3. Updating the Roadmap

4. The Fertilizer Trade

5. The Shipping Collapse and Insurance

6. What the Conflict Has Done to Helium and Aluminum

7. In tech, why Software, Not AI, Is the trade in th Next Rally

8. How the Next ATH Actually Gets Built: Wary Economy

9. Don’t become exit liquidity following big accounts

10. Era of Swing Trading and end of Buy and Hold.

11. How We Are Positioned

Here is where we stand today.

The double-digit correction I said would happen in Spring already began and the the more violent drop is going to come once the current dead cat bounce that began at the end of q1 ends. And the fuel driving this particular move is considerably more dangerous than the 2025 tariff fuel.

The Carry Trade Has a New Engine, Iran War

Last year, the yen carry trade got its energy from tariff drama. Tariffs create noise, uncertainty, and currency dislocations, but they are ultimately negotiable. What we are dealing with now is not negotiable in the same way.

The Middle East conflict has become the dominant macro force in this market. When you combine a near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz with an equity market that was already priced to perfection, you get the conditions for sustained, not fleeting, volatility. This is a structurally different carry trade dynamic than anything we saw last year. The yen carry trade now has a geopolitical engine, and those tend to run hotter and longer than policy-driven ones.

Updating the Roadmap

In December I wrote that the bottom would come sometime around June, followed by a V-shaped recovery that could carry SPX to 8700 by October 2027, with a topping process potentially stretching toward the 2028 election. That base case still holds, but I want to be transparent about the scenarios I am watching.

The Iran conflict introduces a variable that changes the probability distribution of outcomes. What was previously my base case of a June bottom and sharp recovery is now one of several scenarios. Here is how I am thinking about it.

The most likely path remains a meaningful bottom forming sometime in the June to August window, followed by a recovery that accelerates through late 2026 and into 2027. The geopolitical noise eventually gets priced in, capital finds its footing, and we resume the longer-term trend toward new highs.

A secondary scenario is that this correction behaves more like 2022. In that case, the pain creeps into Q3 and Q4 before the recovery begins. The eventual move to all-time highs and 8700 still happens but only after a brief bear market rather than 2025 style quick recoery.

There is also a tail scenario, which I want to mention precisely because I do not want to pretend it does not exist: the market may have already printed a multi-year top. I think this is the least likely outcome, but it is on the table and we should not be blind to it. The good news is that this scenario changes my positioning very little, because we are not trying to predict the exact bottom and ride it up. We are trading individual names.

Why Individual Names Matter More Than Index Calls Right Now

This is the part I want to spend the most time on, because it is where the actual money is being made.

The day the conflict escalated significantly, we sold everything and rotated hard into oil and gas names with zero or minimal Middle East exposure. The logic was simple: when a major supply corridor gets disrupted, domestic and non-affected producers do not just benefit, they tend to move vertically. That is exactly what happened as both our portfolios have gone up vertically since the war began because of the rotation into energy.

I shared many of those names on X after we entered, and the full transaction log, including entry prices and sizes, is with subscribers on my substack subscribers chat.

The same framework applies many other trade ideas that we will discuss below.

The Fertilizer Trade

Roughly a third of global seaborne fertilizer trade moves through the Strait of Hormuz. That corridor has been essentially closed since late February. The Middle East, particularly Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, accounts for nearly half of global urea exports and about 30 percent of global ammonia exports. When that supply gets disrupted, prices move, and companies with no Middle East exposure become structurally advantaged overnight.

The major publicly traded names in this space are well known (example, CF and NTR, both good buy the dip candidates) and I will not list them here since I discuss specific entry points and sizing in the subscribers chat when I make the trade. But the trade structure is identical to what we did in oil and gas: go long on domestic or non-affected producers at the right time, and look at the short side for companies with heavy Middle East concentration. Most of the short candidates are not American-listed, which limits the playbook somewhat, but there are names worth examining carefully if you like shorting but I am ignoring that side of the trade in my portfolio as it focuses exclusively on American listed names only.

Some of the most interesting opportunities here are not the obvious large names. There are smaller, less-followed names where the dislocation is more extreme and the move, when it comes, will be sharper. I have already shared a watch list in the war and taken few positions but will add some more when time comes. Right now portfolio is mainly concentrated on the oil and gas names even though even after taking lot of profit.

The Shipping Collapse and What It Means for Traders

Before we get into the specific commodity disruptions, there is a layer underneath all of it that affects everything moving in and out of the region: the complete breakdown of the maritime insurance market and what it has done to tanker economics globally.

To understand the scale of what happened, you need to know what normal looked like. Before February 28, war risk insurance premiums for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz ran between 0.125 and 0.25 percent of a ship’s hull value for a single voyage. For a $100 million tanker, that was roughly $200,000 per trip. Expensive but manageable, and baked into freight rates that the market had accepted for years.

Within 48 hours of the conflict starting, that math ceased to exist. Major insurance consortiums including Gard, Skuld, NorthStandard, the London P&I Club, and the American Club all cancelled war risk coverage simultaneously. The International Group of P&I Clubs, which collectively covers roughly 90 percent of the world’s ocean-going tonnage, issued 72-hour cancellation notices across the board. The war risk market for Hormuz transit did not just get more expensive. It effectively ceased to function. Underwriters were not raising their prices, they were declining to quote at all.

When coverage did begin to trickle back, the numbers were unrecognizable. Premiums for vessels attempting to transit the strait jumped to between 5 and 10 percent of hull value. On that same $100 million tanker, you are now looking at $5 million to $10 million for a single voyage. Lloyd’s of London finance editor David Osler noted that before the conflict, typical Hormuz rates ran between 0.15 and 0.25 percent of hull value for a one-week policy. After the conflict began, quotes reached 5 to 10 percent of hull value. That is a 40-fold increase at the top end in a matter of days.

The freight rate story is just as dramatic. VLCC rates, the day rates for the supertankers that carry roughly 2 million barrels of crude oil per voyage on the Middle East to China benchmark route, hit an all-time record of $423,736 per day early in the crisis. That was a 94 percent increase from the prior Friday’s close and more than six times the five-year average. The average rate for the same route was around $2.50 per barrel last year. Within days of the conflict starting, one Korean firm was asking the equivalent of $20 per barrel. One Greek-owned VLCC leased out at $350,000 per day. Another was chartered by India’s Reliance Industries for $538,000 per day. Hapag-Lloyd, one of the world’s largest container shipping lines, stopped bookings into and out of the upper Gulf entirely, estimating the war was costing the company $40 to $50 million per week.

Even those rates assumed someone would attempt the transit, which most owners refused to do regardless of what the insurance market offered. Tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed by approximately 92 percent compared to the week before the conflict. As of early March, 247 vessels of meaningful size representing roughly 6 percent of global tanker deadweight tonnage were stranded inside the Middle East Gulf. Expanding to the broader region, 984 tankers representing approximately 22 percent of the entire global fleet were stuck or displaced. Iran had made 21 confirmed attacks on merchant ships by mid-March, and IRGC commanders were explicitly threatening to set ablaze any vessel attempting to cross.

The alternative routes are not simple fixes. VLCCs are too large to fit through the Suez Canal, which means any Cape of Good Hope diversion adds roughly 10,000 miles to a voyage. Oman’s ports at Duqm and Salalah, which were being discussed as bypass options, were struck by Iranian drones, with fuel storage facilities at Duqm damaged. The Joint War Committee of the London insurance market subsequently added Omani waters to its high-risk maritime area list, meaning even the bypass routes became expensive to insure.

The spot price to ship a standard 40-foot container rose 20 to 25 percent on the main routes from the Far East to Europe and the US West Coast. War surcharges on routes from the Far East to the Middle East Gulf and Red Sea spiked nearly 200 percent between late February and late March. This is not just an oil story. Every commodity moving through the region carries dramatically higher transport costs now, and that feeds directly into global inflation in ways the market is still underestimating.

Where the shipping trade lives

The tanker operators and owners with vessels already positioned outside the conflict zone are the cleaner plays here. The ones loading in West Africa, the US Gulf, Brazil, and Guyana are seeing demand surge as Asian buyers scramble to replace the Gulf barrels they can no longer access reliably. But the less obvious and more durable angle is the ton-miles argument.

When crude flows reroute around the Cape of Good Hope instead of through Hormuz and Suez, the same volume of oil requires significantly more ships to transport it because each vessel is tied up at sea for much longer. A voyage that used to take three weeks now takes six or seven. That structural increase in ton-miles needed effectively tightens the global tanker supply even without a single new barrel being added or removed from world markets. It is a mathematical squeeze on fleet availability that persists well beyond the conflict itself, because rerouting habits and buyer diversification strategies do not reverse overnight even after the strait reopens. Asian buyers who have spent months building alternative supply relationships with West African and Atlantic basin producers do not simply abandon those relationships the moment Hormuz clears. The trade shift has stickiness, and that stickiness supports day rates longer than most people are currently modeling.

I will discuss specific names in the subscribers chat as I trade them.

The insurance angle

The direct marine war risk insurance market is largely not accessible through American-listed equities in a clean way. The major underwriters are Lloyd’s syndicates and European-listed reinsurers, which limits the playbook for those of us focused on American-listed names.

The more interesting angle is actually the other side of the trade. The companies paying these premiums are getting squeezed hard. Refiners, commodity traders, and operators with heavy Gulf sourcing dependence are absorbing dramatically higher input costs on every cargo they move. For some of these companies the insurance and freight cost explosion is the difference between a profitable quarter and a very painful one. That creates a short side opportunity in the names most exposed to Gulf-dependent logistics, and it is worth watching carefully as earnings begin to reflect what has happened over the past five weeks. I will most likely avoid trading the insurance angle, but the framework is straightforward: follow the pain to find the short, and follow the rerouted demand to find the long.

What the Conflict Has Done to Helium and Aluminum

Beyond oil and natural gas, the conflict has caused specific, documented damage to industrial infrastructure that most financial media is barely covering. Two supply chains in particular deserve real attention: helium and aluminum. And in both cases, we are not talking about vague disruption risks, we are talking about named facilities that are offline right now, with recovery timelines that stretch well beyond any ceasefire.

Start with helium.

Qatar produces roughly one third of the world’s helium, and that production has been halted entirely following Iranian strikes on its gas infrastructure. The facility at the center of this is QatarEnergy’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, the largest liquefied natural gas plant in the world, which produces helium as a byproduct. On March 18, QatarEnergy confirmed that Iranian ballistic missiles struck Ras Laffan for the second time that month, causing extensive damage to the Pearl GTL facility. In the early hours of March 19, several additional LNG facilities were targeted, causing sizeable fires and further damage.

The recovery timeline is years. QatarEnergy told Reuters that the attacks wiped out 17 percent of the country’s LNG export capacity, and that repairs could take three to five years. That is not a typo. Three to five years. The market is already feeling it. Spot helium prices have surged between 70 and 100 percent in some cases within little more than a week. Hundreds of specialized cryogenic containers are now stuck in the Middle East, and direct helium buyers who typically lock in supply through long-term contracts are now scrambling to secure short-term spot market cargoes.

South Korea and Taiwan, the world’s two largest semiconductor makers, are particularly exposed. South Korean manufacturers sourced 55 percent of their helium from Gulf Cooperation Council countries in 2025, and Taiwan sourced 69 percent from the GCC in 2024. Why does this matter beyond the obvious? Because helium is not substitutable. It is used in computer chip production to displace oxygen and moisture within fabrication facilities, as a coolant during high-temperature stages of chip production including the etching process, and in the production of silicon wafers. There is no workaround. You either have helium or you do not make chips at the same rate. This is a direct knock-on effect for the AI buildout that many are ignoring.

Now the aluminum story, which broke even more recently.

Iran struck leading aluminum smelters in the UAE and Bahrain, damaging facilities at Emirates Global Aluminium and Aluminium Bahrain and injuring workers. The UAE facility is the one worth understanding in detail. Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al Taweelah site, one of the world’s largest aluminum production complexes, sustained significant damage from Iranian missile and drone attacks, forcing the facility to halt operations entirely. The complex, including the smelter and casthouse, power plant, Al Taweelah alumina refinery, and recycling plant, was fully evacuated and placed in emergency shutdown.

The damage is worse than a typical shutdown. The smelter lost power due to the strikes and the smelting facilities known as potlines were forced into an uncontrolled shutdown. When you lose power during active smelting, the molten metal inside the circuits solidifies. You are not looking at a restart. You are looking at a rebuild. Early assessments indicate that a full recovery of primary aluminum production could take up to 12 months. The Al Taweelah smelter produced about 1.6 million tonnes of cast metal in 2025. That production is now gone for the better part of a year at minimum.

In Bahrain, Aluminium Bahrain initiated a controlled shutdown of about 19 percent of its production capacity due to disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, even before the direct strikes on its own facility.

The IEA’s executive director stated that at least 40 energy assets across nine countries in the Middle East have been severely or very severely damaged since the war began, and that damage to oil and gas fields, refineries, and pipelines would take considerable time to repair. Forty assets across nine countries. That is the actual scale of what is happening, and the aluminum and helium stories are just two threads in a much larger industrial unraveling.

For producers and processors outside this blast radius, particularly those with domestic supply chains and no Middle East exposure, these are among the most compelling swing trades in this environment. The disruption timeline is long enough to give these positions room to run, but nothing here is a forever hold. We will take profits, rotate, and adjust as the situation develops. That is the whole point of staying nimble when the world is this uncertain. There are some excellent names for both Aluminum and Helium trades both obvious big ones and some under the radar multi baggers.

Why Software, Not AI, Is the Tech Trade in the Next Rally

Let me be precise here, because the distinction matters more than it might seem at first glance.

Tech is a broad umbrella that covers everything from semiconductor equipment to cloud infrastructure to AI chips to enterprise software. When I say software could lead the next recovery, I am talking specifically about the software layer, the companies that sell subscriptions, licenses, and services, many of which got absolutely destroyed in this selloff despite having nothing to do with Middle East supply chains or tariff exposure. These are businesses with recurring revenue, relatively predictable earnings, and no physical inventory risk. They sold off because of the fear of ai replacing them, and that creates the kind of dislocation that swing traders exist to capture. Yes some will go bankrupt as AI replaces them but those who are not getting replaced that also went down with the entire SAAS crash will go up vertically.

AI hardware and AI platform names are a different story, and there are now multiple layers of pressure stacking against them simultaneously.

Start with the supply chain problem that almost nobody in financial media is connecting to AI valuations, including one of the large account is in the top list of the finance substack.

As I laid out in the helium and aluminum section, QatarEnergy’s Ras Laffan facility, which was responsible for roughly a third of the world’s helium supply, is offline for what could be three to five years. South Korean manufacturers sourced 55 percent of their helium from Gulf countries in 2025. Taiwan sourced 69 percent from the same region. These are not minor suppliers to the chip industry. SK Hynix, Samsung, and TSMC are among the largest consumers of helium in the world, and they source heavily from exactly the facilities that are now damaged or inaccessible. Helium is used at multiple stages of chip production, from wafer fabrication to the etching process to cooling during lithography. There is no substitute and there is no quick fix. When the input costs for making chips go up sharply and supply becomes uncertain, the economics of the AI buildout change whether the market has priced that in yet or not.

The aluminum damage adds another layer. The components that go into data center infrastructure, server racks, cooling systems, power distribution units, and the physical hardware that houses AI compute, all of these have aluminum in them. Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al Taweelah site, which produced 1.6 million tonnes of cast metal annually, is now offline for up to 12 months. Bahrain’s Alba has already shut down nearly a fifth of its capacity. Gulf producers account for roughly 8 percent of global primary aluminum output, and most of it moved through the Strait of Hormuz, which is effectively closed. This does not stop the AI buildout, but it makes it slower and more expensive at exactly the moment when the market is already questioning whether AI capital expenditure can be justified at current levels.

Then there is the capital flow problem, which compounds everything above.

A significant portion of the money that has been flowing into American AI infrastructure over the past 18 months has come from Gulf Cooperation Council sovereign wealth funds and private investors. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar have been aggressive buyers of AI-related equities and have made substantial commitments to AI infrastructure projects in the United States. With the Middle East now a war zone and those governments managing serious domestic economic pressure, that capital flow does not simply pause. If the war escalate, GCC countries can get wrecked for a long time with the destruction of their desalination plants. Funds that need liquidity pull from wherever they have gains, and American AI stocks sitting on multi-year runs are near the top of that list. The same region that was propping up AI valuations is now a source of forced selling.

Put all three of these together. Input costs for chip manufacturing are rising because helium is scarce and expensive. Data center buildout costs are rising because aluminum is disrupted. And the sovereign capital that was underwriting AI equity valuations is being pulled back to deal with a war at home. These are not separate stories. They are the same story told from three different angles, and they all point in the same direction for AI multiples in the near term.

Software does not carry any of this baggage. A boring enterprise software company trading at a reasonable multiple after a 35 to 40 percent drawdown has none of these supply chain dependencies, none of this sovereign capital exposure, and none of the input cost inflation risk. The servers it runs on were already built. Its margins do not move because helium prices doubled.

The sequencing I expect, if the recovery comes, is this: software leads first because it is the most oversold relative to fundamentals and carries the cleanest risk profile. Semiconductors and hardware infrastructure follow as confidence builds and supply chains begin to stabilize. AI names catch a bid last, in the speculative tail of the rally, when risk appetite is fully restored and people stop caring about multiples again. Knowing the sequence determines where you want to be and when. But the AI names will catch in an explosive way as the supply chains ease in the final phase before bubble top if the scenario to 8700spx plays out. So when this correction bottoms and rallies, software may out perform ai initially, then AI catches up in a melt up fashion. The retail will likely buy the dip on the AI too early and rotate to software too late and miss the AI’s catch up run.

How the Next All-Time High Actually Gets Built

If we get the recovery, and I still think we do, the fuel for it is probably not what most people are picturing. The mechanism that could drive this market to new highs is something far more blunt: war economy spending.

Trump has already floated a $1.5 trillion spending framework, and the language coming out of Washington has shifted unmistakably toward a wartime posture. When the United States government decides to spend and claim they want war economy, the money goes into defense contracts, weapons manufacturing, shipbuilding, ammunition production, advanced electronics, satellite systems, and the entire industrial supply chain that feeds those industries.

This is not speculative because this is how war economies work. The government becomes the customer of last resort, and it is not a price-sensitive customer as margins expand. Stocks that were ignored during the AI bubble suddenly look like the most reliable earnings stories in the market.

The setup for defense and weapons names right now looks similar to what we described for fertilizer and oil and gas. There are prime contractors everyone already knows, and then there are the second and third tier suppliers, the less-covered names that do the actual manufacturing, that tend to move faster and further when the cycle turns. Zero Middle East production exposure, domestic revenue base, and a government that has just decided to spend aggressively on their products. That is the profile we are looking for. Specific names and entries will be discussed in the subscribers chat whenever I trade. Some names have already been discussed.

The broader point is this: the path to all-time highs, if it comes, is probably not led by AI enthusiasm. It is more likely built on a combination of oversold software, defense spending tailwinds, and energy names that are benefiting from the same conflict that caused the correction in the first place. That is a very different portfolio than what most people are holding right now.

Don’t become exit liquidity following big accounts

There is something happening in financial media that does not get talked about honestly, so I am going to say it plainly.

Some of the largest and most-followed accounts in this space operate with a model that is genuinely harmful to the retail traders who follow them. The model works like this: maintain a portfolio of hundreds of names across every sector and theme imaginable, surface the winners publicly with screenshots and threads, let the losers quietly disappear into the noise, and keep the record-keeping vague enough that no honest performance audit is ever possible.

In a bull market, this approach looks like genius. Everything goes up, they highlight the things that went up the most, and their follower count grows. What they are actually doing is creating exit liquidity for institutional positions. By the time a thesis goes viral, by the time it is being discussed on mainstream financial media and retail traders are reading about it in newsletters and clicking subscribe, the smart money that originated the idea is already looking for the door. The viral moment is not the signal to enter. It is often the signal that someone needs you to enter so they can exit.

Think carefully about why a large account would publish a piece without a paywall, let it get picked up by mainstream media, and seed a particular narrative about market timing. Content that is given away for free at scale is almost always doing a job. Sometimes that job is to condition a large audience to expect a particular outcome at a particular time, which conveniently aligns with someone else’s liquidity needs. Retail traders who anchor their timing to that narrative end up holding the bag while the accounts they trusted quietly repositioned weeks earlier.

Why Swing Trading Beats Buy and Hold From Here

The buy and hold religion was built for a specific era, and that era may be ending soon when the everything bubble tops before 2030.

Buy and hold works when you have a multi-decade tailwind of globalization, falling interest rates, expanding multiples, and a central bank willing to backstop any serious decline. Strip any one of those away and the math gets harder. Strip several of them away at once, which is what appears to be happening, and buy and hold, especially 100ds of names stops being a strategy and starts being a hope.

We are potentially looking at a period of sustained multiple compression, geopolitical disruption to global supply chains, a reversal of the capital flows that inflated asset prices over the past decade, and a domestic policy environment that is deliberately restructuring the global trading order. In that environment, the idea that you buy a diversified basket of large-cap American equities and check back in five years is wishful thinking than an investment philosophy.

Swing trading in this environment is not about being smarter than the market. It is about being honest about what the market is doing and positioning accordingly. Right now, certain things are going to go down regardless of what the Fed does or what the headline CPI prints. And certain things are going to go up regardless of whether the broader market recovers or continues to slide. Those disconnects are where the money is.

We will be wrong sometimes. Every trader is. But when you are working with a defined set of names, clear entry and exit criteria, and a documented record of every transaction, you can learn from the mistakes and compound the wins. You cannot do that when you own 500 names and only talk about the ones that worked.

How We Are Positioned

Both portfolios are actively deployed for what is happening right now and with only select names. We never hold more than 25 tickers in either of the portfolio and this allows us to stay only in quality trades. The options-only founding tier portfolio has been the more aggressive vehicle and is up over 100 percent since inception in July 2025. This founding tier subscription also includes the portfolio from the regular tier. The regular tier Best 25 holdings portfolio, which mixes stocks and options is available to all regular subscribers, is positioned with the same macro thesis but with more flexibility on holding period and risk per name.

What we are trying to do is be in the right names on both the short and long side as the setup plays out, with a swing trading approach and time horizons ranging from days to roughly a year.

Every trade is shared live in the chat with size and entry price, before or immediately after execution in the subscribers only chat. There is transaction log of every trade since inception.

The window for the easy money in passive investing may already be closing. The traders who recognize that early and adapt will do well.

After the earnings dip on February 3 from PayPal, we accumulated shares at an average price of 42.75. When price broke lower, we also added short term February calls for pennies, which did not work out. We then added March out of the money calls, positioning for a technical rebound back above 49 even without any major catalyst. Those March contracts are now moving up multifold. The setup was primarily technical, based on positioning, timing cycles, and price structure. The recent takeover narrative is simply accelerating attention toward valuation rather than creating the move itself.

The key near term level remains 49, which previously saw heavy accumulation. Price naturally tends to revisit major liquidity zones like this. If momentum carries into that level, narratives can easily fuel continuation while price works through supply. Above that sits the post earnings gap near 52, which is another logical magnet that often gets filled once momentum builds. These are mechanical market behaviors that frequently occur regardless of headline driven excitement.

The takeover discussion itself may or may not lead anywhere meaningful. Large acquisitions in financial infrastructure face intense regulatory scrutiny across multiple jurisdictions. Antitrust review alone can delay or block transactions depending on the identity of the buyer. Financing a deal of this size is also complex, especially in a higher rate environment where capital is more expensive. Many reported situations begin as exploratory conversations and never develop into formal offers.

Even when strategic interest is real, buyers often walk away after deeper due diligence. Growth trajectory, competitive pressure from alternative payment platforms, integration challenges, and capital allocation priorities can all shift the decision. A full acquisition is a long legal and regulatory process that can take many months or even years to complete if it happens at all.

Regardless of the outcome, current positioning looks very favorable. Based on earnings power and typical valuation ranges, the stock should reasonably trade in the 52 to 62 range at least once this year. Stronger sentiment or sustained re rating could push price into the 70s. None of that requires a completed buyout, only normalization in valuation and continued momentum.

If a real acquisition process develops, price will likely move up, pull back, and consolidate repeatedly while approvals and negotiations unfold. Because of the long legal framework involved, waiting for a final takeover outcome is not necessary for strong returns. The plan is to take profit well before any potential completion. The opportunity here is the valuation gap and technical rebound. The takeover narrative simply expands the upside range while that original thesis continues to play out.

But if the take over does happen fast with the help of greasing Trump administration, then its still win win situation for our Position.

Be sure to read our previous articles that has no paywall:

• Shiller P/E, Case for buying 2026 correction & 8700 SPX

• 2026, Yen Carry Trade, Market Correction, New Fed Chair, Midterms

Our portfolios have been stagnant since the October peak, with market price action remaining range-bound. However, things should get very exciting soon now that February Opex is out of the way. We will attempt to break above the October peak before the end of this quarter and position ourselves to move much higher in Q2. All positions will be shared in real time in the subscriber chat, and we maintain a complete transaction history of every entry since inception.

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In terms of new activity, we did very little in December and January so far as we allowed the post October and November drawdown positions to play out, but we expect more positive activity starting this week. The founding tier options only portfolio, which launched in early July with 100k, is up about 70 percent and is currently holding roughly 165k in cash, with the remaining positions being the failed October/Nov rebalance trades that could either push the portfolio higher if they work or still leave it up about 65 percent if they expire worthless.

The regular tier stocks and options portfolio, launched in late June with 100k, is now slightly above break even after briefly going negative during the drawdown, as many of the mistimed October and November trades rebounded strongly in late December and January. On the equity side we are positioned in two robotics names, $PATH and $OUST, two under the radar critical minerals penny stocks, $ARSMF and $CTVFF, which we believe can break $1 this year, along with $OPEN, now the second largest allocation after cash and one we are very bullish on for 2026 given new management and a push to bring mortgage rates down, plus a small position in $GME, and with the exception of GME all of these remain attractive buys at current levels for 2026.

Subscribers who came on board in early and mid December, got some great entries well below my price. They were also able to take advantage of some of the options at much better strikes and cash in on the rallies. However, myself and those who were here through the October/November rebalance are patiently waiting to re-capture the Portfolio ATH from Mid October and the time is here for new re-positioning. We are going to have a great new year. If you joined in October and gave up in because of the drawdown, this is a great time to jump back in.

Reminder that there is 2026 50% discount offer running this weekend that will expire when Market opens on January 12th. This discount offer includes performance guarantee of at least 50% gains for both portfolios for those who join and stay with me till the end of the year. If the performance guarantee is not met, 2027 will be comped free of charge. This year is going to be amazing with good amount of volatility making it another great year for swing traders and that is why I can confidently add performance guarantee. You can take advantage of this offer here https://www.trademetry.com/86275b20. The link only discounts the regular tier portfolio, so I have temporarily changed the founding Tier to $2500 from $5000 in the website until this offer ends. I usually give 10% additional discount for crypto users, but in this offer its additional 30% making the total cost $1775 to get full access to everything with 50% performance guarantee. If interested in this, DM me. For tracking performance guarantee, it will begin on all new positions starting January 12th for options and for shares it will start counting with already held shares from the opening price on January 12th and all new share positions that we may take this year. This is the flash offer that will expire when market opens January 12.

This is the only substack where every single portfolio transaction is accounted for with date, exact entry/exit costs in an organized log that can be cross-checked with all live posts. To put into perspective, try asking Citrini Research, largest finance substack, to show his transaction history and he will ask you to pay another subscription just for that and still will not give you a clear tracking while taking you for a while spin!

Over the past few days, many social media accounts have been pointing out that the Shiller P/E is currently at its second-highest level since the dot-com bubble, suggesting that the current bubble is about to burst. This prompted me to write this article to explain why I believe the bubble will continue for a few more years. We will likely see a sharp correction in 2026 (see my previous article https://substack.com/home/post/p-182115753), but I view that as a likely correction rather than the end of the bubble.

Shiller P/E, also called CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings), is a version of the P/E ratio designed to smooth out short-term economic ups and downs. Instead of relying on only last year’s earnings, it uses the average of inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years (lets call it E10), and then compares today’s stock price (or index level) to that long-term earnings average.

As of late December 2025, the S&P 500 sits near 6,900, carrying a Shiller P/E (CAPE) of 40.7. To the casual observer, these numbers feel lofty, perhaps even overwhelming when the perma-bears and fearmongers label it as 2nd highest since dot com peak. But if you draw a line through history’s most extreme moments of euphoria, the math suggests we aren’t at the ceiling yet. We are simply on schedule.

There is a historical trendline of extremes, a ceiling defined by the two greatest speculative peaks of the last century: September 1929 and December 1999. When you connect those two distinct points in time, you get a slope that projects exactly where the breaking point lies for the modern market.

And according to that line, the S&P 500 isn’t done. The math points to a third peak that is higher, later, and more violent than consensus expects.

The Geometry of a Bubble

The methodology is simple but terrifying. We define our upper bound by connecting:

1. Peak 1 (Sept 1929): Shiller P/E of 32.6

2. Peak 2 (Dec 1999): Shiller P/E of 44.19

This creates a trendline that rises slowly over time—about 0.165 valuation points per year. It is a moving target. Every year the market survives without a crash, the “allowable” valuation for a historical peak creeps higher.

If we look at where that line sits today, in late 2025, it demands a Shiller P/E of roughly 48.5. We are currently at 40.7. The gap represents the final leg of the “Melt-Up.”

The Destination: 8,717

Many bullish analysts are calling for S&P 8,000 as the psychological top while perma-bears think the top is already here. The math disagrees with both. 8,000 is merely a waypoint.

Because the trendline is rising, and corporate earnings (E10) are growing, the intersection point is a moving target. I ran the convergence calculations based on the market’s current velocity (valuation expanding at ~4.2 points per year) versus the trendline’s slope.

The curves intersect in Late October 2027.

By that date, the trendline will require a Shiller P/E of 48.8. Assuming the 10-year real earnings average continues its standard growth trajectory, the S&P 500 price required to touch that line is not in the 7000’s or at 8,000. It is about 8,717.

That is the mathematical “Third Peak.” It represents a further ~25% rally from today’s levels—a final, euphoric push that sucks in every last dollar of liquidity on the sidelines. We could trade for anywhere from 6 months to 18 months near the peak before the collapse.

The Gravity of the Mean

The problem with touching an electric fence is that you eventually have to let go. The 1929 and 1999 peaks were not new plateaus; they were summits followed by avalanches.

If the S&P 500 hits 8,717 in late 2027, it will be trading at nearly 3x the historical mean valuation (Shiller P/E of ~17).

What does a “Return to Normal” look like from 8,717?

• The Mean Reversion Target: ~3,036

• The Implied Drawdown: -65%

A drop to 3,036 would not just erase the gains of the final melt-up. It would wipe out the entire post-2020 rally, returning the index to levels seen during the COVID-19 panic. This is the asymmetry of extreme valuations: the climb is a staircase, but the reversion is a cliff.

The “Rhyme” of the Election Cycle

Why October 2027? Why does the math point there?

It is chilling how well this projection aligns with the US Presidential Election cycle.

• The Setup (2026–2027): The third year of a presidential term is historically the strongest. Fiscal stimulus and pro-growth policies are often front-loaded to dress the economy for the upcoming vote. This feeds the run to 8,717.

• The Peak (Late 2027/Early 2028): As the election year begins, the market hits “peak optimism.”

• The Reset (2029): The 100-year anniversary of the 1929 crash falls exactly one year after the 2028 election.

Historically, the moment of reckoning comes around the election. The 1929 crash happened one year after an election. The 2000 bust began in an election year. The 2008 crisis exploded weeks before an election.

If the projection holds, the next two years will be very bullish with all double digit corrections acting as buy the dip opportunity for bulls, a trap for bears, and a setup for a generation-defining reset in 2029.

The Cassandra Gap: Why Michael Burry is Right (Eventually)

No discussion of market bubbles is complete without mentioning . The man who famously shorted the 2008 housing crisis has recently re-emerged from silence, closing his hedge fund and launching a newsletter to scream into the wind about the “AI Bubble.” He is already placing massive bearish bets against the darlings of this era, like Nvidia and Palantir.

But history teaches us a specific lesson about Burry: he is an exceptional researcher who is almost always two to three years early to the party. He began his “Big Short” in 2005, only to be mocked and sued by his own investors for two long years before the world finally collapsed in 2008. If the “Burry Clock” is ticking again today in late 2025, it aligns with terrifying precision with the math we’ve discussed. Being early feels the same as being wrong, until the moment the trendline is touched. If Burry is sounding the alarm now, he is likely providing us with the exact lead time needed to watch this final, two-year melt-up to 8,700 before the mathematical destiny of the Third Peak finally arrives.

My Views: Beyond the Fear-Mongering

I wrote this article to cut through the noise of those who use the Shiller P/E as a weapon of fear. While the ratio is at historic extremes, a better understanding of its past shows us that “expensive” does not mean “imminent crash.” I remain fundamentally bullish on this market; however, we must expect and even welcome violent corrections (https://substack.com/home/post/p-182115753). Historically, these pullbacks are not the end, but the fuel for the next rally to new all-time highs.

We are navigating a multi-decade cycle where “set it and forget it” strategies may no longer be the most efficient way to capture wealth. Instead of betting on a single long-term direction, we will approach this market one quarter at a time. By playing the directions as they emerge, by picking certain names from certain themes, we position ourselves to make money when the market goes up and, just as importantly, when it goes down. Our goal isn’t to fear the “Third Peak,” but to use these best-in-class historical tools to identify the best opportunities for profit in every phase of the cycle.

Subscribe below if you wish you access the subscriber only chat to see all the moves in my 2 substack portfolios as they happen.

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On December 19, 2025, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its policy interest rate to 0.75%. While this move was widely expected, its significance lies in the potential to trigger another “unwind” of the Yen Carry Trade. To prevent a year-end market collapse, the US Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department have launched a massive, coordinated liquidity defense.

The Mechanism: Why Japan Moves the US Market

The “Yen Carry Trade” is a global financial engine where investors borrow Yen at near-zero interest rates to buy US assets like stocks and bonds. When Japan raises rates, that borrowed money becomes more expensive. This forces investors to sell their US assets to pay back their Japanese loans.

When thousands of hedge funds sell at once, US market prices drop. These drops are often blamed on news events like “tariffs” or “geopolitics,” but the underlying cause is frequently a sudden shortage of Yen-funded liquidity. Since BOJ started raising rates in 2024, all major US market correction has come directly after each time BOJ raised rates.

Historical Review: BOJ Hikes and the Fed’s Response

The following table details the major Japanese rate hikes of the last two years and the specific “emergency” measures the US government used to stabilize the markets.

The 2025 “Spring Collapse”: A Warning for 2026

The 19% market crash between February and April 2025 serves as a critical case study. While the public narrative blamed the “Liberation Day” tariff announcements, the market had already been made fragile by the January BOJ hike.

1. The Hike (Jan): Removed the “cheap money” safety net.

2. The Chop (Feb): Markets traded sideways as carry traders began to exit.

3. The Catalyst (Mar/Apr): Tariffs acted as the final blow to an already illiquid market, leading to a violent 19% drawdown.

Current Defense: The December “Liquidity Wall”

The US government is currently using three major tools to ensure the December 19 hike doesn’t trigger a similar crash:

• The Standing Repo Facility (SRF): On October 31, 2025, the Fed executed a $29.4 billion repo operation—the largest in 20 years. This tool allows banks to instantly swap bonds for cash, preventing a “liquidity freeze.”

• Treasury Buybacks: The Treasury has expanded its “Cash Management” buybacks to $150$ billion per year. Today, they conducted a $2 billion targeted buyback of 20-30 year bonds to support the most sensitive part of the market.

• Fed Bill Purchases: On December 12, the Fed began a 30-day program to buy roughly $54 billion in short-term government debt. This provides a constant “bid” in the market, making it harder for prices to fall.

2026 Projections: The June Collision and Powell’s Exit

While current measures may protect the market through the holidays, a structural risk emerges in the 1st half of 2026. Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chair ends on May 15, 2026. This leadership transition occurs just weeks before a projected "collision" in global interest rates. If the Fed continues to cut while the BOJ continues to hike, the interest rate gap will vanish entirely. Below table shows the next 5 meetings and the expected decision.

The Risk: In June 2026, the Fed and BOJ are expected to move in opposite directions during the same week. This simultaneous move will narrow the interest rate gap by 50 basis points in just 48 hours. Historically, this type of "collision" is the most dangerous environment for US stocks.

Conclusion: The Path Forward

The Fed and Treasury have successfully built a “liquidity cushion” that makes a December crash unlikely. The most probable scenario is that the Fed keeps the market propped up through the New Year. However, based on the 2025 pattern, the real test will come in the first half of the year, leading into the high-risk “collision” window in June 2026. At that point, a new Fed Chair will be forced to manage the final stages of the Yen Carry Trade unwind.

As this is also a midterm election year, the administration will likely do everything possible to avoid a total market collapse. Nevertheless, a double-digit correction in the first half of the year seems probable. Timing will be the critical factor. With heavy Fed interference, assets may experience a “short squeeze” to the upside before a significant drop, or the current tug-of-war could keep us in the same range-bound action we’ve seen since October before the eventual move lower. This drawdown could occur in waves over several months to bottom in June or happen quite rapidly. Weather its total market collapse or another epic rally with heavy government intervention remains to be seen.

As we manage our swing trading portfolios, we will remain highly disciplined. Our goal is to stay defensive while capturing the volatility in both directions as these cycles play out. Portfolio updates and moves will be posted in the subscriber chat.

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Here is where the portfolio was in my last update on October 12 which you can read in full following this link and a snippet of the summary is in below image.

Where the Portfolios Stand now (dec 5 market close)

Founding Tier Options only Portfolio
Launched July 7 with 100k. It is currently up about 84% as of Dec 5 market close. This is a large drawdown from the October peak where it was up more than 140%.

Best 25 Holdings Portfolio
Launched June 23 with 100k. It is now up about 15% since inception but was up almost 69% at the October peak.

What Happened After October 10

The short answer: my bullish bias, not hedging enough when the opportunity was perfect, rushing back into positions after the October rally, and rebuying & holding on to Bitcoin-related names longer than I should have.

The market had followed my projections all year up until after October 10. I caught the spring crash and the reversal perfectly. I was bullish through the summer and trimmed most long positions right before October 10 expecting the market to bottom later in the month.

After my October 12 update post I waited for SPX to dip into the 6300s from the 6550 Oct 10 close, but the opposite happened. The following Monday started a rally that lasted into month end and took the market to new all time highs. I expected new highs eventually but not before a proper bottom. Because my bias was already bullish, I rushed back into stocks and leaps on the first pullback in early November. I also re-entered Bitcoin exposure through IBIT and names like MARA and RIOT. These had been winners in the previous quarter for my portfolio and I bought them again using those profits.

At first it looked perfect. The early November dip reversed quickly and everything turned green. Going into the November 12 government funding vote, I was heavily long AI names, crypto-linked names, thematic names, and I added cheap 6950 and 6900 calls that were up multiples.

On November 11, I said in the members chat that I would finally add puts for downside protection.

On November 12, SPX pushed toward 6870 and our calls were up 100 to 300 percent. Puts were still expensive but based on the setup I expected a 200 point move in either direction. That afternoon I bought the first batch of 6700 puts expiring November 14 when SPX was slightly above 6850. The plan was to build a total of 30 to 40 contracts in each portfolio.

The Hedging (lack of) Mistake

This is where the major mistake happened. I told subscribers that I am expecting a 200 point move from 6850 to either side with a heavy lean towards it going upwards. The plan was to buy batches of puts as hedge.

I only bought 10 puts. I planned to add more but let the bullish bias stop me. Here is what I posted after market close on Nov 12 and how I decided not to buy additional put hedges that night after the vote.

After the vote to reopen the government, futures were green and the 6700 puts were under 2 dollars. This was the easiest moment to add 30 to 40 more contracts because my original plan was to sell 10 of the contract for $10, another 10 for $20 and hold the rest for $50 if the 200 point move happened. The portfolio was heavily long and had plenty of cash. Not buying them ended up being extremely costly because the 200 point move did happen and it was to the downside.

Those puts later broke 10 dollars, then 20 dollars on thursday, and on Friday morning traded as high as 53 dollars after the market dropped 200 points from Wednesday’s close. I sold the 10 contracts I had for $10, but had nothing left to hold for the 20 or 50 dollar targets. If I had bought the additional batches, that hedge alone would have grown to more than 100 percent of the portfolio while costing only about 5 to 7.5 percent to enter.

Missing that hedge changed the entire month. It put me on tilt, led to uncharacteristic decisions, and hurt both portfolios for the rest of November.

Where Things Stand Now

Both portfolios are still positive since inception, but the November drawdown stands out. Quarter ending months like December are historically my strongest and I expect complete turn around. Price action since Thanksgiving has been slow but I expect movement to pick up after the FOMC this Wednesday.

I also still hold some positions expiring in January and February that I never closed and left for dead. If we get a Santa rally after some FOMC week weakness, any one of those could lift the portfolios significantly. But what is going to matter most is my next moves in December and how I deploy the remaining cash.

I’m ready for FOMC and the month of December, and aiming to take the portfolios to new highs. If there is any month you want to follow me on trades, it is quarter ending months. You can find all my moves, holdings live in the subscriber only chat. The next public update will come around January Opex. Thank you for reading.

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First, I want to thank everyone who believed in me and has supported me since the launch of my Best 25 Holdings Substack portfolio on June 23, 2025. The portfolio had a strong first month, gaining over 30%, followed by a pullback in the second month, and then a powerful rebound in the third month.

As of the October 10 market close, the Best 25 Holdings portfolio is up 68.68%, including a solid 8.7% gain on Friday, even as the broader market finished the day in the red.

My Options Only portfolio, available to founding tier subscribers and launched on July 8, 2025 with a starting capital of $100,000, is currently up 140.64%.

Both portfolios had an excellent Friday because I anticipated the recent market pullback well in advance. I positioned the portfolios accordingly by taking profits on strong long positions and adding downside protection on Thursday and the moment market opened on Friday.

The goal of these portfolios is to outperform SPX by more than 1000% and it is far exceeding that. I estimate that my two portfolio values to be over $400k and $600k respectively by January Opex. You may think that is crazy but you will see why it is not farther below in my market outlook. But before that I need to say few more things.

My last public update on Substack was posted on July 28, 2025. At that time, I gained over 1,000 subscribers (both free and paid) almost immediately, but I wasn’t fully prepared. The platform was new to me, and scammers quickly copied my name, registering similar domains and social media handles on platforms I don’t even use.

To avoid confusion, I decided to create a unique and consistent brand name that was available everywhere. That is how Tradenometry became Trademetry, a name I was able to secure across all major platforms.

Because of these distractions, I chose to keep a low profile and limit publicity. I didn’t want to grow the Substack too much before confirming that the new name was fully protected. Now that everything is properly set up, I’m ready to increase visibility.

Feel free to spread the word, as I focus on organic growth and performance rather than doing reciprocal promotions or collaborations with other finance Substackers with subscriber portfolios.

Market outlook for 4th quarter 2025

If you followed my public notes on substack or x posts, you will see that I was bullish all summer and warned people not to short the rally. Towards the end of the summer in september I kept telling people to be bullish until October. Here is a a public note I made on Sep 9th

Then on Oct 1, I posted this note, open the note to expand and read everything.

In that Oct 1 note, I said that market would top that week and that top would last into the following week and that is exactly what happened. And we nailed the top near perfectly. Instead of posting screen grabs, I have edited the privacy setting of last week’s chat thread for the Best 25 Holdings Portfolio. Click on it, scroll all the way to Monday read all the messages from Monday to Friday and see how we handled the pull back on Friday and finished the day strong.

Revealing this thread also reveals the remaining holdings in the portfolio. I do not recommend gambling with any options positions in there, since we have already closed and taken profit on many of them. If you read the thread, it also gives you a clear view of my market trajectory for the rest of the year including when this October weakness would bottom. However, I don’t recommend making any long dated bets based on what you read.

If you’ve followed my X account since last year, you already know that I went mostly into cash in December 2024 with my passive investment portfolios. I shifted my focus to swing trading and active investing because that’s the best way to capture alpha in market conditions like these, with a Trump presidency combined with a bubble environment. The birth of this Substack came after several of my X followers encouraged me to start one. It happened right after I called the February Opex top to the exact date earlier in 2025 and predicted that markets would retest the August 2024 lows in a correction similar to the one during COVID.

So far, this year has been one of the easiest to chart and forecast—knock on wood—and I expect that to continue. However, as I’ve said before, don’t make long-dated bets solely based on my views. In this type of market, I assess things in shorter intervals: one week at a time, one month at a time, one quarter at a time, and at most, I look no further than six months ahead.

This bubble is not the time to keep most of your money tied up in mega-cap stocks such as the Magnificent 7 or other expensive names, especially if you’re a retail trader or managing a portfolio under $10 million. While those stocks might still rise 30% to 60%, that’s not the kind of alpha smaller accounts should be chasing during a bubble melt-up. You also don’t need 200+ names in your portfolio either. What you need is a condensed, high-alpha portfolio that combines strong stocks with well-timed option leaps in the right names. This approach applies not just to smaller accounts but also to larger ones. It’s the kind of setup where smaller portfolios can grow by many folds.

Many tech IPOs and speculative names launched during the COVID era—underwritten by major firms like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley—peaked in 2021. Now, several of them are setting up to retest or even surpass those highs. Some already did during the summer rally, while others are still catching up.

For smaller accounts, the key will be identifying a few strong names when the market bottoms later this month. That’s where the real multi-bagger opportunities will be. Expect a return of meme mania this winter in many of these names.

This October weakness should bottom out later this month or in early November, followed by a wave of positive sentiment. Retail traders and bears will likely get trapped shorting the bottom using their new Robinhood shorting tools, just before an epic rally begins. Those positioned correctly could easily grow their portfolio by multifold.

Remember you are in a bubble. Don’t look for rational reasons. Don’t do deep research with lot of data and fundamentals. Those will come in handy once the bubble bursts and bottoms but its not happening in the next 6 months and most likely not anytime next year other than some healthy corrections. This is one best time to be alive if you are swing trader since the last Trump presidency and the years leading up to dot com bubble and the crash years. Make the best of it! If you don’t know how, then just subscribe and come read my weekly chat threads!

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We continuously cautioned again shorting the markets or even buying hedges all of July. There’s still no good reason to start buying hedges or shorting the market right now but things may change as we get into August. Before the end of August, we expect $SPY/$SPX to pull back to test the $600/$6000 but we may squeeze above $640/$6400 before that as I have been pointing out since early July. Right now scaling into hedges targeting September expiry will turn profit even if it bleeds during the final phase of the squeeze that may happen in the final week of July and early week of August but we are not ready to enter them yet. But things can change any day as soon as the signals that we are watching become visible. Someone on social media commented that our portfolio is having success because of bull market but what he doesn’t know is that we are going to be gaining lot more during the pull back because of the way we are planning the upcoming well timed hedges!

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During the week, we closed one of our equity position that was bought on June 26th for profit and executed three options trades, two of which were big winners. Here’s a summary of the week’s key actions:

• Buy to Open: $AMSC Jul 18 '25 $45 Call – 20 contracts @ $0.15 (July 15,2025) = $300 Expired (July 18, 2025) @ $0 = $0 (-100%)

• Buy to Open: $APLD Jul 25 '25 $11 Call – 20 contracts @ $0.25 (July 15,2025) = $500 Sold to close (July 18, 2025) @ $1= $2,000 (+300%)

• $ETHA: 300 shares @ $18.39 (June 26, 2025) Closed (July 16, 2025) @$24.05 = $7215 (+30.78%)

• Buy to Open: $DELL Jul 18 '25 $30 Call – 10 contracts @ $0.40 (July 17,2025) = $500 Sold to close (July 18, 2025) @ $3.10= $3,100 (+675%)

We also added another option position on Friday to carry it through the weekend which will become a new open position. It can be viewed further below under the paywall by members. Currently there are 7 Long equity positions, 2 Short Equity Positions and 3 Options positions open in the Best 25 Holdings Portfolio going into the new week.

The live portfolio tracking spreadsheet, which includes all open positions and a complete log of every transaction since inception, will be made available to members before next week’s update. All trades will continue to be posted in the subscriber chat immediately as they happen.

My Substack remained in the Top 20 Rising Finance Newsletters throughout last week and is on pace to surpass 1,000 subscribers this week. Despite outperforming peers, the subscription price remains much lower, as I’m still operating at the original low launch price. At some point in the near future, the price will double. However, existing members and anyone who join at the current price will be able to keep that rate for life, provided they renew their subscription before it expires.

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I'm currently working on a comprehensive spreadsheet that will show the current holdings of the Best 25 Holdings Portfolio with live prices, portfolio moves, and a complete trade log since inception. Until it's ready, I'll include the full log and all portfolio actions in these updates for anyone who wants to track our progress in detail. Below is what happened this week and as well as summary since inception. Below all that there is some more IMPORTANT information, so please read everything

This Week's Changes

• Short: $TSLA – 25 shares @ $355.00 (June 23, 2025) = +$8,875 (closed July 7 @ $292 = +$1,575) +17.75%

• Buy to Open: $GOOGL Jul 18 '25 $185 Call – 30 contracts @ $0.47 (July 8) = $1,410** (sold to close July 11 @ $0.95 = $2,850 / +102.1%)

• Long: $CRM – 50 shares @ $270.00 (July 9) = $13,500

• Buy to Open: $IBIT Jul 11 '25 $63.5 Call – 10 contracts @ $0.58 (Jul 2) = $580 *(sold to close July 10 @ $1.16 = +$1160 / +100%)

• Buy to Open: $CI Jul 18 '25 $300 Put – 12 contracts @ $0.55 (Jul 2) = $660 *(sold to close July 11 @ $2.50 = $3,000 / +354.5%)

• Buy to Open: $ETHA Jul 18 '25 $20 Call – 20 contracts @ $0.61 (June 26) = $1,220 *(sold to close July 11 @ $2.55 = $5,100 / +318.0%)

• Buy to Open: $LMT Sep 19 '25 $550 Call – 50 contracts @ $2.00 (July 11) = $10,000

📊 Portfolio Summary (as of July 11, 2025)

Inception Date: June 23, 2025

🔹 Equity Positions

Long:

• $OXY: 100 shares @ $43.85 (June 23, 2025)

• $SLB: 150 shares @ $34.00 (June 23, 2025)

• $GOOGL: 40 shares @ $163.00 (June 23, 2025)

• $HAL: 200 shares @ $20.85 (June 23, 2025)

• $ETHA: 300 shares @ $18.39 (June 26, 2025)

• $AAPL: 100 shares @ $201.00 (June 27, 2025)

• $TOI: 4,000 shares @ $2.40 (Jul 2, 2025)

• $CRM: 50 shares @ $270.00 (July 11, 2025)

Short:

• $MSFT: 10 shares @ $487.00 (June 23, 2025)

• $NVDA: 50 shares @ $144.40 (June 23, 2025)

• $TSLA: 25 shares @ $355.00 (June 23, 2025) = +$8,875 Closed July 7, 2025 @ $292 = +$1,575 (+17.75%)

🔹 Options Positions

Buy to Open: $DELL Jul 18 '25 $110 Put – 20 contracts @ $1.40 (June 23) = $2,800 Sold to Close @ $0.33 (Jul 2) = $660 (−76.4%)
Buy to Open: $FANG Sep 19 '25 $160 Call – 15 contracts @ $3.90 (June 23) = $5,850
Buy to Open: $JPM Jul 18 '25 $260 Put – 10 contracts @ $2.70 (June 23) = $2,700 Sold to Close @ $0.60 (Jul 2) = $600 (−77.8%)
Buy to Open: $AAPL Jul 11 '25 $215 Call – 50 contracts @ $0.30 (June 27) = $1,500 Sold to Close @ $3.75 (July 3) = $18,750 (+1,150%)
Buy to Open: $IBIT Jul 11 '25 $63.5 Call – 10 contracts @ $0.58 (Jul 2, 2025) = $580 Sold to Close @ $1.16 (July 10) = $1,160 (+100%)
Buy to Open: $CI Jul 18 '25 $300 Put – 12 contracts @ $0.55 (Jul 2, 2025) = $660 Sold to Close @ $2.50 (July 11) = $3,000 (+354.5%)
Buy to Open: $ETHA Jul 18 '25 $20 Call – 20 contracts @ $0.61 (June 26) = $1,220 Sold to Close @ $2.55 (July 11) = $5,100 (+318.0%)
Buy to Open: $GOOGL Jul 18 '25 $185 Call – 30 contracts @ $0.47 (July 8) = $1,410 Sold to Close @ $0.95 (July 11) = $2,850 (+102.1%)
Buy to Open: $LMT Sep 19 '25 $550 Call – 50 contracts @ $2.00 (July 11) = $10,000

Cash Balance

• Starting Cash June 23 Inception: $100,000

• Open Long Equity Cost: -$68,892 (as per purchase prices)

• Open Options entry cost: -15,850

• Open Short Equity Proceed: +$12090

• Cash Available: $50,173 (adjusted for all open and closed positions)

• Estimated portfolio value at July 11, 2025 Market Close including unrealized gains (Open options price is counted at entry price): $128,174.40 +28.17%. Of this 21.24% is from options and 6.93% is from equities.

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My Substack was in the top 20 rising publications in finance for four days in a row this week and crossed the 500-subscriber mark within just three weeks of launch. I had promised all paying members that I would share my entries publicly without a paywall until I gained some exposure and reached 500 subscribers. That milestone has now been met.

Going forward, I will continue to share new equity positions after the market closes via my X account, once all members have had a chance to enter. However, I will no longer share any new open option positions publicly.

Reaching 500 subscribers in three weeks, even if most are on the free tier, is a huge milestone and I truly appreciate all the support. Now that the paywall will be turned on, most free subscribers will no longer see new plays. But if you don’t want to pay, you still have a way to upgrade for free. Substack will automatically upgrade you to one month of paid access if you refer five new subscribers, any tier including free, using your unique referral link that you can find here at the leaderboard. You can earn up to three and six months of paid access by reaching 12 and 25 total referrals.

If you’re part of any online communities, share your successful trades, spread the word, and post your link that comes from leaderboard while logged in. I’m looking forward to growing with all of you. Thank you again for the incredible support.

After adding a long position in Oncology Institute Inc (TOI) on wednesday, we locked in a 1,150% gain on our $AAPL calls on Thursday after a powerful run by closing all 50 contracts for $3.75. When we entered this apple position for 30 cents last Friday, I set the sell target as $5 but decided to close it early because I didn’t want to hold it through the long weekend with some Tariff drama setting up for next week. Earlier in the week we also rotated out of JPM and DELL puts and deployed into fresh setups like $IBIT and $CI. Our long book now has exposure to momentum, value, and macro themes, and we still have over $77K in available cash for further moves as Q3 unfolds. Expect a more aggressive rotation setup next week.

• Added Long: $TOI – 4,000 shares @ $2.40 (Jul 2, 2025) = $9,600

• Buy to Open: $DELL Jul 18 ’25 $110 Put – 20 contracts @ $1.40 (June 23, 2025) = $2,800 Sold to Close @ $0.33 (Jul 2, 2025) = $660 (–76.4%)

• Buy to Open: $JPM Jul 18 ’25 $260 Put – 10 contracts @ $2.70 (June 23, 2025) = $2,700 Sold to Close @ $0.60 (Jul 2, 2025) = $600 (–77.8%)

• Buy to Open: $IBIT Jul 11 ’25 $63.5 Call – 10 contracts @ $0.58 (Jul 2, 2025) = $580

• Buy to Open: $CI Jul 18 ’25 $300 Put – 12 contracts @ $0.55 (Jul 2, 2025) = $660

• Buy to Open: $AAPL Jul 11 ’25 $215 Call – 50 contracts @ $0.30 (June 27, 2025) = $1,500 Sold to Close @ $3.75 (July 3, 2025) = $18,750 (+1,150%)

  All these were sent live in our members chat during market hours then it was posted after market closed for the public in case anyone who wanted to tag along. Below are the screenshot of the live posts in the members chat.

  

  

  

  

Portfolio Summary (as of July 4, 2025)

Equity Positions

Long:

• $OXY – 100 shares @ $43.85 (June 23, 2025) = $4,385

• $SLB – 150 shares @ $34.00 (June 23, 2025) = $5,100

• $GOOGL – 40 shares @ $163.00 (June 23, 2025) = $6,520

• $HAL – 200 shares @ $20.85 (June 23, 2025) = $4,170

• $ETHA – 300 shares @ $18.39 (June 26, 2025) = $5,517

• $AAPL – 100 shares @ $201.00 (June 27, 2025) = $20,100

• $TOI – 4,000 shares @ $2.40 (Jul 2, 2025) = $9,600

Short:

• $MSFT – 10 shares @ $487.00 (June 23, 2025) = +$4,870

• $TSLA – 25 shares @ $355.00 (June 23, 2025) = +$8,875

• $NVDA – 50 shares @ $144.40 (June 23, 2025) = +$7,220

Options Positions

• Buy to Open: $DELL Jul 18 ’25 $110 Put – 20 contracts @ $1.40 (June 23, 2025) = $2,800 Sold to Close @ $0.33 (Jul 2, 2025) = $660 (–76.4%)

• Buy to Open: $FANG Sep 19 ’25 $160 Call – 15 contracts @ $3.90 (June 23, 2025) = $5,850

• Buy to Open: $JPM Jul 18 ’25 $260 Put – 10 contracts @ $2.70 (June 23, 2025) = $2,700 Sold to Close @ $0.60 (Jul 2, 2025) = $600 (–77.8%)

• Buy to Open: $ETHA Jul 18 ’25 $20 Call – 20 contracts @ $0.61 (June 26, 2025) = $1,220

• Buy to Open: $AAPL Jul 11 ’25 $215 Call – 50 contracts @ $0.30 (June 27, 2025) = $1,500 Sold to Close @ $3.75 (July 3, 2025) = $18,750 (+1,150%)

• Buy to Open: $IBIT Jul 11 ’25 $63.5 Call – 10 contracts @ $0.58 (Jul 2, 2025) = $580

• Buy to Open: $CI Jul 18 ’25 $300 Put – 12 contracts @ $0.55 (Jul 2, 2025) = $660

Updated Cash Balance

• Starting Cash: $100,000

• Less Long Equities: –$55,392

• Less Options Premiums Paid (open only): –$8,310

• Add Proceeds from Shorts: +$20,965

• Add Net Gains from Closed Options (after cost): +$13,010

Current Cash Balance: $70,273

Note: I am working on a comprehensive spreadsheet that will track the portfolio live with PNL and as well as every single log since inception. Until it is finalized, I will just list the current holdings and log like this.

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Founding Member Options Trades Update

If you’re comfortable trading options and can allocate a dedicated bankroll for them in your trading account, consider joining as a founding member to get access to our options only portfolio. Markets are expected to be volatile going into the 2030’s and options only dedicated portfolios can vastly outperform regular portfolios if done correctly. So far founding members have close 2 short term trades for over 500% and over 300% respectively. We are also currently in the process of accumulating another big position slowly with expiry in September that should bring us epic returns.

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🟩 Today’s Changes

• Added Long: $TOI – 4,000 shares @ $2.40 (July 2, 2025) = $9,600

• Buy to Open: $DELL Jul 18 ’25 $110 Put – 20 contracts @ $1.40 (June 23, 2025) = $2,800 Sold to Close @ $0.33 (Jul 2, 2025) = $660 (–76.4%)

• Buy to Open: $JPM Jul 18 ’25 $260 Put – 10 contracts @ $2.70 (June 23, 2025) = $2,700 Sold to Close @ $0.60 (Jul 2, 2025) = $600 (–77.8%)

• Buy to Open: $IBIT Jul 11 ’25 $63.5 Call – 10 contracts @ $0.58 (Jul 2, 2025) = $580

• Buy to Open: $CI Jul 18 ’25 $300 Put – 12 contracts @ $0.55 (Jul 2, 2025) = $660

📊 Portfolio Summary (as of July 2, 2025)

🔹 Equity Positions
Long:

• $OXY – 100 shares @ $43.85 (June 23, 2025) = $4,385

• $SLB – 150 shares @ $34.00 (June 23, 2025) = $5,100

• $GOOGL – 40 shares @ $163.00 (June 23, 2025) = $6,520

• $HAL – 200 shares @ $20.85 (June 23, 2025) = $4,170

• $ETHA – 300 shares @ $18.39 (June 26, 2025) = $5,517

• $AAPL – 100 shares @ $201.00 (June 27, 2025) = $20,100

• $TOI – 4,000 shares @ $2.40 (Jul 2, 2025) = $9,600

Short:

• $MSFT – 10 shares @ $487.00 (June 23, 2025) = +$4,870

• $TSLA – 25 shares @ $355.00 (June 23, 2025) = +$8,875

• $NVDA – 50 shares @ $144.40 (June 23, 2025) = +$7,220

🔹 Options Positions

• Buy to Open: $DELL Jul 18 ’25 $110 Put – 20 contracts @ $1.40 (June 23, 2025) = $2,800 Sold to Close @ $0.33 (June 30, 2025) = $660 (–76.4%)

• Buy to Open: $FANG Sep 19 ’25 $160 Call – 15 contracts @ $3.90 (June 23, 2025) = $5,850

• Buy to Open: $JPM Jul 18 ’25 $260 Put – 10 contracts @ $2.70 (June 23, 2025) = $2,700 Sold to Close @ $0.60 (Jul 2, 2025) = $600 (–77.8%)

• Buy to Open: $ETHA Jul 18 ’25 $20 Call – 20 contracts @ $0.61 (June 26, 2025) = $1,220

• Buy to Open: $AAPL Jul 11 ’25 $215 Call – 50 contracts @ $0.30 (June 27, 2025) = $1,500

• Buy to Open: $IBIT Jul 11 ’25 $63.5 Call – 10 contracts @ $0.58 (Jul 2, 2025) = $580

• Buy to Open: $CI Jul 18 ’25 $300 Put – 12 contracts @ $0.55 (Jul 2, 2025) = $660

💰 Updated Cash Balance

• Starting Cash: $100,000

• Less Long Equities: –$55,392

• Less Options Premiums Paid (open only): –$9,810

• Add Proceeds from Shorts: +$20,965

• Add Proceeds from Closed Options: +$1,260

👉 Current Cash Balance: $56,363

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How to get started

1. Get the Substack app by clicking this link or the button below. New chat threads won’t be sent sent via email, so turn on push notifications so you don’t miss conversation as it happens. You can also access chat on the web.

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2. Open the app and tap the Chat icon. It looks like two bubbles in the bottom bar, and you’ll see a row for my chat inside.

3. That’s it! Jump into my thread to say hi, and if you have any issues, check out Substack’s FAQ.

With $SPY and $QQQ nearing resistance, I expect $DIA (Dow Jones) to start catching up while $SPY and $QQQ either consolidate or pull back. Apple hasn't fully participated in the recent rally, but I believe it is well-positioned to outperform in the coming weeks. I expect it to move toward its 200-day simple moving average, which is currently sitting above $223.

There’s a real possibility that $AAPL could move quickly once momentum builds, potentially shooting past $220. That’s why I’ve taken both equity and options exposure. I plan to close the equity position if it reaches $222, so consider this your early sell alert. As for the $215 calls expiring July 11, I plan to exit if they reach $5. That is my preliminary sell alert, but I may adjust it based on how price action develops next week. If I do change the target, you will get a notification so you can act accordingly.

Remember, the five options slots in this portfolio are meant to complement the equity holdings and therefore follow it together with the entire portfolio for maximum efficiency. As mentioned in previous posts, option prices will fluctuate, but the strategy I use is designed to work in the context of the full portfolio and overall market dynamics.

I’m also planning to increase equity exposure to other names after seeing how markets behave on June 30, which marks the end of Q2.

🟩 Today's Entry

• $AAPL – 100 shares @ $201.00 (June 27, 2025)

• $AAPL Jul 11 '25 $215 Call – 50 contracts @ $0.30 (June 27, 2025)

📊 Portfolio Summary (as of June 27, 2025)

Our Best 25 Holdings portfolio kick started this week and these are all the entries this week. We have not sold anything yet.

🔹 Equity Positions
Long:
$OXY – 100 shares @ $43.85 (June 23, 2025) = $4,385.00
$SLB – 150 shares @ $34.00 (June 23, 2025) = $5,100.00
$GOOGL – 40 shares @ $163.00 (June 23, 2025) = $6,520.00
$HAL – 200 shares @ $20.85 (June 23, 2025) = $4,170.00
$ETHA – 300 shares @ $18.39 (June 26, 2025) = $5,517.00
$AAPL – 100 shares @ $201.00 (June 27, 2025) = $20,100.00

Short:
$MSFT – 10 shares @ $487.00 (June 23, 2025) = +$4,870.00
$TSLA – 25 shares @ $355.00 (June 23, 2025) = +$8,875.00
$NVDA – 50 shares @ $144.40 (June 23, 2025) = +$7,220.00

🔹 Options Positions
Buy to Open:
$DELL Jul 18 '25 $110 Put – 20 contracts @ $1.40 (June 23, 2025) = $2,800.00
$FANG Sep 19 '25 $160 Call – 15 contracts @ $3.90 (June 23, 2025) = $5,850.00
$JPM Jul 18 '25 $260 Put – 10 contracts @ $2.70 (June 23, 2025) = $2,700.00
$ETHA Jul 18 '25 $20 Call – 20 contracts @ $0.61 (June 26, 2025) = $1,220.00
$AAPL Jul 11 '25 $215 Call – 50 contracts @ $0.30 (June 27, 2025) = $1,500.00

💰 Updated Cash Balance
Starting Cash: $100,000
Less Long Equities: – $45,792.00
Less Options Premiums Paid: – $14,070.00
Add Proceeds from Shorts: + $20,965.00

👉 Current Cash Balance: $61,103.00

🛠️ Founding Member Options Trades Update

Today we officially launched the options trading alerts for founding members. We opened two trades, and one of them closed the same day for a 5x return. The 2nd entry, was an early position in a longer-dated contract, part of a slow accumulation plan targeting a future spike in premium.

If you’re comfortable trading options and can allocate a dedicated bankroll for them in your trading account, consider joining as a founding member. You’ll receive some of my own trades tailored to your capital and risk tolerance. Markets are expected to be volatile going into the 2030’s and options only dedicated portfolios can vastly outperform regular portfolios if done correctly.